NYAO November Issue

Data Thru October 2014

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

OCTOBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

October Estimate*

September Actual

YTD thru October*

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the nine- county New York Metro Area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * October 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data source: Polk.

2014 2013 % chg.

2014 2013 % chg.

2014 2013 % chg.

Industry Total

40,761 37,742 8.0% 44,793 42,070 6.5% 429,002 411,460 4.3%

Cars

20,455 19,507 4.9% 21,384 21,685 -1.4% 206,502 216,371 -4.6% 20,306 18,235 11.4% 23,409 20,385 14.8% 222,500 195,089 14.1%

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

9,847 9,314 5.7% 11,968 10,290 16.3% 109,867 98,124 12.0% 8,328 7,784 7.0% 7,426 7,478 -0.7% 75,755 75,806 -0.1% 19,857 17,989 10.4% 22,396 21,107 6.1% 213,959 206,585 3.6% 2,729 2,655 2.8% 3,003 3,195 -6.0% 29,421 30,945 -4.9%

European Japanese

Korean

THIS MONTH’S SUMMARY The Metro Area new vehicle market continued its steady growth in September and October of this year, with registrations in both months increasing by more than 6%. The market is on pace to improve by 4% for all of this year versus 2013. EXPANDED COVERAGE BEGINNING WITH NEXT RELEASE OF AUTO OUTLOOK GNYADA now represents three new counties in New York State—Dutchess, Putnam, and Orange. Starting with the December issue of New York Auto Outlook, we will include specific information on those markets.

1. Metro New York area new vehicle market increased an estimated 8% in October of 2014 versus a year earlier. U.S. market was up 6.2%. 2. Area market increased 4.3% during the first ten months of this year versus a year earlier, compared to 6.3% Nationally. 3. The market is predicted to improve 4% from 2013 to 2014. 4. SUV market share rose to 43.3% thru October of this year, up 4.1 points . 5. Jeep , Subaru , Mazda , Lexus , GMC , and Audi registrations increased by 14% or more during the first ten months of 2014. 6. Area used vehicle market was down 2.3% for the first nine months of this year.

months 10

The Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents nearly 400 franchised new car dealerships in metro New York with combined annual sales totaling over $27 billion. GNYADA members are responsible for more than 57,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF SEPTEMBER RESULTS

12% 16% 20%

Percent Change in Area Registrations September 2014 vs. September 2013

0% 4% 8%

6.5%

September new retail light vehicle registrations in the Metro Area were 44,793 units, up 6.5% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected a 4% increase, with a total of 43,752. The actual total was 1,041 units higher than the estimate. Auto Outlook is predicting that October sales increased by 8% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the December release.

4%

-8% -4%

-20% -16% -12%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2014 Issue 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Registrations 452,076 New vehicle registrations 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Apr Feb

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2013 and 2014*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

Metro NY U.S.

2014 2013

The area market increased 4.3% thru October of this year, while the U.S. market was up 6.3%.

8.0

7.6

6.5

6.3

6.2

4.3

Monthly registrations increased by an estimated 8% in October 2014.

0%

Change October '14* vs. October '13

Change September '14 vs. September '13

Change YTD '14 thru October* vs. YTD '13

Oct

Jun

Dec

Aug

* Figures for October 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast New retail % change Years registrations vs. prev. year

Area registrations are predicted to increase by 19,688 units in 2014.

509,000

489,312

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

452,076 410,906 351,809 397,196 413,207 461,113 489,312 509,000

-

461,113

410,906

-9.1%

413,207

397,196

-14.4% 12.9%

351,809

4.0%

11.6%

6.1% 4.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Forecast

Forecast

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2014 Issue

Detroit Three Share Increases in 2014

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru October*

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru October* vs. YTD ‘13

Korean 6.9%

Detroit Three

1.7

Japanese

-0.3

European 17.7%

Japanese 49.9%

European

-0.7

Detriot Three 25.5%

Korean

-0.7

0.5

1.5

1.0

2.0

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

*Figures for October 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Source: Polk

SUV Market Share Increases to 43.3%; Up 4.1 Share Points vs. Year Earlier

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru October*

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru October* vs. YTD ‘13

Pick ups/Vans 8.5%

SUVs

4.1

Pickups/Vans

Passenger Cars 48.2%

0.4

SUVs 43.3%

Passenger Cars

-4.5

4.5

7.0

2.0

-8.0

-5.5

-0.5

-3.0

*Figures for October 2014 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Source: Polk

Hybrids Account for just 3.1% of Area Market

Market Share - YTD 2014 thru September

Change in share: YTD ‘14 thru September vs. YTD ‘13

Diesel 1.0%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 3.1%

Diesel

0.2

Gasoline

0.0

Electric

-0.1

Gasoline 95.7%

Hybrid

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

-0.2

-0.1

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

October Estimate*

Three Month Period (Aug‘14 thru Oct‘14)

YTD thru October*

2014*

2013 % change

2014*

2013 % change

2014*

2013 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2014 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

40,761 37,742

8.0% 132,468 123,190 7.5% 429,002 411,460 4.3%

20,455 19,507

4.9%

64,947 64,210

1.1%

206,502 216,371 -4.6%

20,306 18,235

11.4%

67,521 58,980

14.5%

222,500 195,089 14.1%

9,847

9,314

5.7%

33,530 29,464

13.8%

109,867 98,124 12.0%

8,328

7,784

7.0%

23,142 22,840

1.3%

75,755 75,806 -0.1%

19,857 17,989

10.4%

66,886 62,198

7.5%

213,959 206,585 3.6%

2,729

2,655

2.8%

8,910

8,688

2.6%

29,421 30,945 -4.9%

1,085

1,003

8.2%

3,271 2,952 5,685 1,587 5,571 2,172 1,894 831

3,030 2,436 5,581 1,886 5,329 1,808 1,796 846

8.0%

9,874 10,622 -7.0%

962

823

16.9% 11.2% 6.9% -7.8% 0.8% 17.7% -8.2% 1.8% -2.5% -0.5% 5.7% -6.3% -0.9% -32.5% 52.1% 12.6% -14.6% 24.9% -4.6% -4.0% -6.6% 31.0% 15.2% 36.5% 25.0% 45.8% 3.1% 3.2%

21.2% 1.9% -1.8% -15.9%

9,240

8,100 14.1%

2,098

1,886

18,892 18,571 1.7%

262 461

245 500

2,736 5,355

2,694

1.6%

5,995 -10.7%

1,725

1,712

4.5%

18,260 17,821 2.5%

677 503 116

575 548 114

20.1%

6,336 6,618 1,150

6,325 6,533

0.2% 1.3%

5.5%

325

389

-16.5%

1,229 -6.4%

2,542

2,608

8,073 2,047

7,795 1,784

3.6%

27,140 27,105 0.1%

589

592

14.7% 6.5% -1.1% -8.6% -22.2% 53.2% -14.4% 11.5% -2.0% 16.0% -5.9% -14.2% 43.2% 24.4% 53.5% 25.1% 42.9% 6.6% -4.2% 6.5% 42.5% 1.8% 7.6%

6,742

5,848 15.3%

5,625 1,777

5,320 1,896

19,618 18,413

61,360 62,344 -1.6% 20,638 22,519 -8.4%

6,121 2,242

6,187 2,452

746

753

8,448

8,455 -0.1%

56

83

200

257

693

875

-20.8%

2,797

1,839

9,113 2,692

5,947 2,501

28,504 18,963 50.3%

855 269

759 315

8,686 3,009

8,426 2,935

3.1% 2.5%

778

909

1,302

1,263

4,836 1,076 2,297 6,867

4,336 1,098 1,981 7,299

15,019 12,945 16.0%

456 499

365 523

3,319 7,831

3,070

8.1%

6,624 18.2%

2,584

2,693

23,530 22,153 6.2%

183 186

196 142

458 567

534 396

1,719 1,855

1,977 -13.1% 1,368 35.6%

3,934

3,415

12,861 12,637

42,985 41,920 2.5%

195 411

189 301

642

516

2,162 4,991

1,995

8.4%

1,615 4,850

1,052 3,877

3,215 55.2%

1,474

1,179

15,360 12,452 23.4%

35

24

150

105

419

476

-12.0%

4,730 1,189

4,390 1,101

7.7% 8.0% 1.7%

16,067 15,069

50,939 49,798 2.3% 10,759 13,668 -21.3%

3,610

3,767

243 195

239 151

820 580

770 407

2,637 1,796

3,170 -16.8% 1,269 41.5%

29.1%

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: Polk. *October ’14 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2014 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Area Registrations YTD ‘14 thru October* vs. YTD ‘13 Top 20 Selling Brands

Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD ‘14 thru October* Top 20 Selling Brands

14.3

Jeep

50.3

Honda

U.S. Area

9.9

11.9

Subaru

23.4

Toyota

13.6

Jeep, Subaru, Mazda, Lexus, GMC, and Audi each had big increases so far this year.

10.0

Mazda

18.2

Nissan

7.6

6.6

16.0

Lexus

Jeep

4.5

6.3

GMC

15.3

Ford

12.5

5.5

Audi

14.1

Mercedes

Mercedes’Area Market share was 5.5% vs. 2.2% in the Nation.

2.2

4.8

Mercedes

6.2

Hyundai

4.3

4.4

3.1

Kia

BMW

2.2

4.3

Chevrolet

2.5

Chevrolet

10.4

3.6

Nissan

2.5

Subaru

3.7 3.5

2.3

Toyota

Lexus

2.1

2.5 2.3 2.3

1.7

BMW

Volkswagen

Dodge

1.3

Acura

1.1

2.2

Chrysler

Audi

0.2

1.2

2.0

0.1

Ford

In niti

0.8

2.0

In niti

-0.1

Kia

3.8

1.8 2.0

Mazda

Honda

-1.6

1.6

GMC

Acura

-7.0

3.0

1.5

Chrysler

-8.4

Hyundai

1.3 1.5

Dodge

Volkswagen

-21.3

3.1

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Market Share

% change in new retail light vehicle registrations

* Figures for October ‘14 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS September JulyThru September YTDThru September 2014 2013 % change Current Previous % change 2014 2013 % change

45,185 56,197 -19.6% 149,673 159,403 -6.1% 441,591 452,208 -2.3 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

25,072 31,766 -21.1% 83,717 90,885 -7.9% 245,528 257,275 -4.6% 20,113 24,431 -17.7% 65,956 68,518 -3.7% 196,063 194,933 0.6% 15,867 20,380 -22.1% 51,953 57,218 -9.2% 156,597 166,749 -6.1% 7,227 8,487 -14.8% 24,203 24,141 0.3% 69,480 67,876 2.4% 20,047 24,929 -19.6% 66,790 71,430 -6.5% 196,633 199,656 -1.5% 2,044 2,401 -14.9% 6,727 6,614 1.7% 18,881 17,927 5.3% 4,138 4,631 -10.6% 12,008 12,133 -1.0% 28,424 29,029 -2.1% 3,751 4,578 -18.1% 11,914 12,606 -5.5% 29,685 31,143 -4.7% 4,435 5,051 -12.2% 15,596 15,341 1.7% 47,690 45,235 5.4% 1,774 1,995 -11.1% 5,918 5,958 -0.7% 20,452 18,789 8.9% 1,551 2,649 -41.4% 5,149 7,645 -32.6% 15,152 21,590 -29.8% 29,536 37,293 -20.8% 99,088 105,720 -6.3% 300,188 306,422 -2.0%

Light Trucks

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2014 Issue Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 12.0 YTD change in new vehicle registrations YTD change in used vehicle registrations

1-year-old or newer vehicles

6-year-old vehicles or older

Data Source: Polk.

As noted on page 8, monthly vehicle registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, typically due to processing delays by governmental agencies.This has likely contributed to the reported 19.6% decrease in used vehicle registrations.Year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of actual results.

Quarterly Percent Change in Area New and Used Vehicle Markets Second Quarter 2013 thru Third Quarter 2014

Used New

19.1

14.8

2.5

5.3

4.9

4.4

-5.6

-6.1

-11.8

-11.5

-13.6

Q2 '13

Q3 '13

Q4 '13

Q1 '14

Q2 '14

Q3 '14

Year-To-Date Comparison (thru September)

Used down 2.3%

New up 3.9%

-2.5% -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2014 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS

New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Jul ‘14 Jul ‘13

YTD ‘14

YTD ‘13

Jul ’14 Jul ‘13

YTD ‘14

YTD ‘13

Thru

Thru

%

Thru Sep

Thru Sep

%

Thru

Thru

%

Thru Sep

Thru

%

Sep ’14 Sep ‘13 Change

Change

Sep ’14 Sep ‘13 Change

Sep change

Bronx

5,612 5,045 11% 15,851 14,291 11% 11,292 11,690 -3% 35,673 12,740 11,851 8% 37,061 35,376 5% 16,199 17,133 -5% 49,024

35,177 1% 50,291 -3% 22,719 -8% 69,583 -5% 74,854 -3% 16,672 0% 20,854 -7%

Brooklyn

Manhattan

7,062 7,020 1% 20,755 19,971 4%

7,027 7,726 -9% 20,964

Nassau Queens

29,529 28,802 3% 82,707 82,398 0% 22,662 24,486 -7% 65,780 19,221 18,154 6% 53,421 50,495 6% 24,272 26,097 -7% 72,477

Rockland

5,920 5,548 7% 16,705 15,859 5% 9,362 9,397 0% 26,938 26,710 1%

5,703 6,023 -5% 16,752 6,640 6,965 -5% 19,363

Staten Island

Suffolk

30,077 28,469 6% 83,139 78,213 6% 38,456 40,447 -5% 111,004 111,792 -1% 18,470 18,208 1% 51,664 50,405 2% 17,422 18,836 -8% 50,554 50,266 1%

Westchester

TOTAL

137,993 132,494 4% 388,241 373,718 4% 149,673 159,403 -6% 441,591 452,208 -2%

Data Source: Polk.

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2014 Thru September

Brand

Bronx

Brooklyn Manhattan

Nassau

Queens

Rockland Staten Island Suffolk

Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

17.8 18.2 12.8

17.9 16.1 10.3

9.4

13.0

17.0 17.0 12.9

13.8 15.2 10.2

15.1

12.3 10.4 10.1

15.2

10.8

9.5

8.6

9.0 6.4 7.3 6.1 6.2 3.1 6.0 3.9 6.9 3.9 2.2 4.1 3.0 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6

4.9 5.8 4.8 2.4 9.5 2.4 3.0 4.4 2.7 2.1 5.5 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.4 0.6 2.7 0.4 1.3 2.2 0.3 1.3 1.0

10.5

11.8

Jeep Ford

5.2 5.9 2.8 5.4 2.4 4.4 2.7 2.2 2.1 3.0 0.7 2.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.2

4.5 5.2 4.6 3.3 3.9 2.9 2.4 5.8 2.1 2.1 1.3 1.7 3.0 1.3 0.8 1.6 3.4 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4

7.4 5.7 6.5 5.2 4.7 4.0 3.1 3.5 2.5 2.3 2.6 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.4 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3

5.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 3.5 3.7 2.9 3.5 2.2 2.4 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3

5.4 7.4 4.5 5.2 3.2 3.3 6.1 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.7 1.4 2.0 1.4 1.5 2.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4

6.3 9.7 4.5 5.7 3.3 3.5 2.1 4.4 2.6 1.3 1.1 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2

8.2 8.0 3.8 6.4 3.3 6.6 3.2 2.2 3.1 1.4 1.7 2.4 1.5 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.5 2.5 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4

Mercedes Hyundai

12.1

BMW

Chevrolet

Subaru

Lexus

Volkswagen

Acura

Audi

Kia

Infiniti Mazda

GMC

Dodge

Chrysler Cadillac

Ram

Lincoln

Land Rover

Buick Volvo

Porsche

Mitsubishi

Other MINI

Data Source: Polk.

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2014 thru September

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2014 thru September

Honda Civic Honda CR-V Honda Accord

Toyota Corolla BMW 3-Series Nissan Rogue Honda CR-V Honda Civic Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Honda Accord

17,363

6,154

15,154

5,694 5,688

11,519

PG: 8 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2014 Issue 0 Toyota Prius BMW 3-Series Ford Explorer Hyundai Elantra Toyota Highlander Nissan Sentra JeepWrangler Honda Odyssey Subaru Forester Mercedes E-Class Toyota Corolla Ford Escape Toyota Sienna Honda Pilot Lexus RX Jeep Cherokee Hyundai Sonata Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Jeep Grand Cherokee 5,068 5,064 4,861 4,785 4,764 4,679 4,485 4,379 4,302 4,168

11,072 11,266

4,508

4,142

3,744 3,662

10,366

10,045 9,760

3,096

Mercedes C-Class Hyundai Sonata

7,294

2,893

5,891

2,772 2,738

In niti G Mercedes M-Class Hyundai Elantra Honda Odyssey Ford Escape Nissan Maxima Nissan Sentra Mercedes E-Class Volkswagen Jetta BMW 5-Series Ford E-Series Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee Toyota Sienna Honda Pilot

5,499 5,449 5,429

Three Hondas were at the top of the new vehicle sales chart during the rst eight months of this year.

13 of the top 20 selling used vehicles were either a Honda, Toyota, or Nissan.

2,521 2,491 2,485

5,171 5,137

2,305

2,139 2,110 2,080 2,072

1,983 1,980 1,925

1,912 1,868 1,849

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

New retail light vehicle registrations

Used retail light vehicle registrations

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the NewYork Metro Area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. October 2014 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the Metro Area market, seasonal factors, and results in the National market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over or under estimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, most recent month (October) is estimated and previous months are actual. Historical registration figures were recently updated by Polk, and will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues.

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA. New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts (including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, expects, anticipates, plans, intends, foresees, it appears, a fact portends that or other similar expressions) are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the automobile industry will be those anticipated by GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: Polk GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, November 2014