GNYADA January 2017 NY Auto Outlook

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Data Through November 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

NOVEMBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

November November

October September

YTD '16

YTD '15

2016

2015 Change

2016

Thru Nov Thru Nov Change

Industry Total

48,249 50,462 -4.4%

47,806 49,758

556,657 538,021 3.5%

Cars

17,182 19,807 -13.3%

17,107

18,689 31,069

214,014 342,643

230,464 307,557

-7.1% 11.4%

Light Trucks

31,067 30,655

1.3%

3,699

Detroit Three

12,790 14,315 -10.7%

13,746

13,874

155,176 92,409 270,849 38,223

146,186 88,392 268,749 34,694

6.1% 4.5% 0.8%

European Japanese

8,996

8,316

8.2%

7,957

7,904

22,955 24,783 -7.4%

22,695

24,532

Korean

3,508

3,048

15.1%

3,408

3,448

10.2%

Data Source: IHS Markit

QUICK FACTS

1. The metro area market had stronger results than the nation in 2016. National registrations declined slightly during the first eleven months of last year versus a 3.5% gain in the metro area . 2. Metro area used vehicle market increased 3.1% during the first eleven months of 2016. Three-year-old vehicle registrations were up 14.9% 3. In November of 2016, new retail light vehicle registrations declined 4.4% versus a year earlier.

4. New passenger car registrations fell 7.1%, while light trucks increased 11.4% . 5. Honda Civic was the best selling Compact Car , while Jeep Grand Cherokee was the leader among Mid Size SUVs. 6. Ram , Dodge , Chevrolet , Hyundai , Audi , Kia , Mazda , and Jeep registrations were up by more than 5% .

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Percent Change in New Retail Registrations

% Change YTD '16 Through November* vs YTD 15

% Change November '16* vs November '15

Metro NYC NewVehicles

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET January 2017 Issue Registrations -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 12/14 2/15 Avg 11/14 1/15 Avg 5.5% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% -4.4%

U.S. New Vehicles

3.5%

-0.4%

-2.2%

-2%

-4%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

-6%

TRACKING MONTHLY RESULTS

Percent Change in Three-Month Moving Average of New Retail Registrations vs Same Period Year Earlier

After posting big increases during the second half of 2015 and early 2016, the area new vehicle market has stabilized during the past few months. Despite the leveling o , sales remain very strong.

12.3%

10.3%

9.6%

10.1%

9.2%

9.0%

8.5%

8.3%

6.1%

2.0%

4.9%

4.8%

4.2%

4.0%

3.2%

3.1%

2.8%

2.6%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

-0.0%

6/16 8/16 Avg -0.7%

7/16 9/16 Avg -0.8%

1/15 3/15 Avg

2/15 4/15 Avg

3/15 5/15 Avg

4/15 6/15 Avg

5/15 7/15 Avg

6/15 8/15 Avg

7/15 9/15 Avg

8/15 10/15 Avg

9/15 11/15 Avg

10/15 12/15 Avg

11/15 1/16 Avg

12/15 2/16 Avg

1/16 3/16 Avg

2/16 4/16 Avg

3/16 5/16 Avg

4/16 6/16 Avg

5/16 7/16 Avg

8/16 10/16 Avg

9/16 11/16 Avg

The graph above provides a clear picture of the trending direction of the metro area market. It shows the year-over-year percent change in the three-month moving average of new retail light vehicle registrations; this average is less erratic than monthly registrations, which can fluctuate due to factors like the timing of manufacturer incentive programs, weather, and title processing delays by governmental agencies.

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook January 2017 Issue

Korean Brands Post Small Market Share Gain in 2016

Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through November

50%

YTD '15 Through November YTD '16 Through November

48.7% 50.0%

40%

30%

27.9% 27.2%

20%

Market Share

16.6% 16.4%

10%

6.8% 6.4%

Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit.

Japanese

Domestic

European

Korean

SUV Market Share Reaches 52%

Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through November

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

YTD '15 Through November YTD '16 Through November

52.0%

48.3%

42.8%

38.4%

Market Share

9.6%

8.9%

SUVs

Passenger Cars

Pickups/Vans

Toyota Prius and RAV4 are Best-Selling Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Models

Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share 2014, 2015, and 2016 Through November

Top 10 Selling Hybrid/Electric Powertrain Vehicles New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations YTD ‘16 Through November

4.0

2016 2015 2014

RANK

MODEL

REGISTRATIONS

3.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Toyota Prius Toyota RAV4 Ford Fusion Toyota Camry Tesla Model S Tesla Model X

3,088 2,400

3.0

2.5

892 796 750 567 375 335 332 300

2.0

1.5

1.0

BMW X5

Ford C-Max

0.5

Chevrolet Volt Hyundai Sonata

0.0

Apr Mar Feb Jan

Jul Jun May

Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

November

September ‘16Through November‘16

YTDThrough November

2016

2015 % change

Current

Yr Earlier % change

2016

2015 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET January 2017 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

48,249 50,462 -4.4% 145,813 145,861 0.0% 556,657 538,021 3.5%

17,182

19,807 -13.3%

52,978 59,275 -10.6% 214,014 230,464 -7.1%

31,067

30,655

1.3%

92,835 86,586

7.2%

342,643 307,557 11.4%

12,790

14,315 -10.7%

40,410 39,450

2.4%

155,176 146,186 6.1%

8,996

8,316

8.2%

24,857 24,139

3.0%

92,409 88,392 4.5%

22,955

24,783 -7.4%

70,182 73,231

-4.2%

270,849 268,749 0.8%

3,508

3,048

15.1%

10,364

9,041

14.6%

38,223 34,694 10.2%

1,026 1,168 1,957

1,008 1,063

1.8% 9.9%

3,248 3,325 5,640 1,093 1,530 8,246 1,187 1,836

3,575 3,290 5,681 1,427 7,395 1,799 1,903 864

-9.1% 1.1% -0.7% 26.5%

13,017 13,572 -4.1% 12,642 11,460 10.3% 21,992 21,825 0.8%

2,234 -12.4%

349 521

321 527

8.7% -1.1% -6.8%

3,977 5,372

3,187 24.8% 5,083 5.7%

7.2%

2,585

2,773

11.5% -34.0%

30,551 27,097 12.7%

450 569

719 671

-37.4% -15.2%

6,001 8,672 1,030

7,768 -22.7% 7,417 16.9% 1,069 -3.6%

-3.5%

-9.6%

255

294

-13.3% -6.3% 5.9% -1.7% 14.2% -18.4% 191.1% -2.6% 10.2% -17.7% -7.8% 15.9% -3.8% 10.4% 19.8% -12.5% -5.8% 8.1% 36.6% 154.1% -2.3% -9.6% 21.4% 21.7% 2.0%

2,916

3,263 -10.6%

9,167 2,677

9,782 2,527

34,529 35,267 -2.1%

956

972

-1.6% 1.9% 12.5%

10,205

9,939 2.7%

5,988 2,390

5,875 2,124

18,699 19,019

75,154 71,941 4.5% 26,749 24,236 10.4% 10,445 11,705 -10.8%

7,258 2,821

6,354 3,459

946 180

1,399 -32.4%

164.7%

489

168

1,438

713 101.7%

3,095 1,066

3,834 -19.3%

10,146 10,419

40,561 38,556 5.2% 11,316 10,458 8.2%

924 524

15.4% -20.6%

2,962 1,283 5,075 1,360 2,666 7,670

2,687 1,558 5,503 1,173 2,770 6,948

416

5,106

4,887 4.5%

1,944

2,180 -10.8%

19,571 20,354 -3.8%

491 855

411 944

19.5% -9.4%

4,778

4,088 16.9% 9,819 5.8%

10,386

2,792

2,540

9.9%

26,252 25,771 1.9%

193 213

151 265

27.8% -19.6%

539 662

450 757

2,332 2,681

2,083 12.0% 2,650 1.2%

4,820

5,674 -15.1%

14,717 15,623

56,778 54,912 3.4%

247 815

211 773

17.1% 5.4% -9.7% -18.2% -1.3% 54.0% 20.8%

711

658

2,633 9,148

2,683 -1.9% 7,022 30.3%

2,685 6,719

1,966 6,586

1,920

2,127

24,204 23,515 2.9%

460

181

1,317

697

89.0%

5,239 1,364

5,308

15,567 15,928

58,585 60,242 -2.8% 12,181 12,275 -0.8%

886 395 181

3,184 1,320

3,524 1,087

477 199

5,200 1,854

3,834 35.6% 1,896 -2.2%

9.9%

616

506

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Markit.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook January 2017 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 Through November vs YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 Through November Top 20 Selling Brands

13.5

Ram

30.3

Honda

10.0

U.S. Area

10.5

Dodge

16.9

Toyota

13.1

10.2

12.7

Chevrolet

Nissan

7.4 7.3

10.4

Hyundai

Jeep

5.3

Ram, Dodge, Chevrolet, Hyundai, and Audi registrations increased by more than 10%.

6.2

Audi

10.3

Ford

12.2

5.5

Kia

8.2

Chevrolet

11.2

4.8

5.8

Mazda

Hyundai

3.9

Lexus market share in the metro area was 3.5% versus 2.1% in the nation.

4.7

Jeep

5.2

Mercedes

2.3

4.3

4.5

Honda

Subaru

4.0 4.0

3.4

Nissan

BMW

2.1

3.5

Lexus

Subaru

2.9

2.1

2.3

Acura

GMC

2.7

1.0

2.3

1.9

Audi

Mercedes

1.3

2.2

0.8

Volkswagen

BMW

1.9

2.0

Kia

-0.8

Volkswagen

3.7

1.9

In niti

-2.1

Ford

0.8

1.9 1.9

-2.8

Mazda

Toyota

1.8

GMC

-3.8

Lexus

3.3

1.6

Dodge

-4.1

Acura

2.2

1.6

Ram

In niti

-10.8

2.9

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Markit.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS November September‘16 – November‘16 YTDThrough November 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2016 2015 % change

47,720 48,295 -1.2% 166,089 153,688 8.1% 642,828 623,496 3.1 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

24,832 26,003 -4.5% 87,796 83,376 5.3% 348,656 343,954 1.4%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET January 2017 Issue Registrations -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 18.7 Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles

22,888 22,292 2.7% 78,293 70,312 11.4% 294,172 279,542 5.2%

16,508 17,033 -3.1% 56,615 54,070 4.7% 219,829 219,368 0.2%

7,438 7,369 0.9% 25,371 23,355 8.6% 99,067 95,916 3.3%

21,649 21,659 0.0% 76,435 69,186 10.5% 293,809 280,351 4.8%

2,125 2,234 -4.9% 7,668 7,077 8.4% 30,123 27,861 8.1%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

5,622 4,834 16.3% 17,999 14,182 26.9% 52,057 43,848 18.7%

4,424 4,540 -2.6% 14,474 14,184 2.0% 47,013 47,878 -1.8%

4,141 3,719 11.3% 15,786 12,639 24.9% 70,728 61,562 14.9%

1,984 1,997 -0.7% 6,869 6,387 7.5% 31,241 30,714 1.7%

1,749 1,832 -4.5% 6,301 5,685 10.8% 24,727 23,548 5.0%

6-year-old vehicles or older

29,800 31,373 -5.0% 104,660 100,611 4.0% 417,062 415,946 0.3%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Percent Change in Used Registrations by Vehicle Age YTD 2016 Through November vs YTD 2015

Registrations for three-year-old vehicles increased by 14.9% during the rst 11 months of 2016 vs year earlier.

14.9

5.0

0.3

1.7

-1.8

1-year-old or newer vehicles

2-year-old vehicles

3-year-old vehicles

4-year-old vehicles

5-year-old vehicles

6-year-old vehicles

BEST SELLING MODELS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook January 2017 Issue

TOP SELLING MODELS IN EACH SEGMENT New Retail Registrations (YTD 2016 through November)

cars

Subcompact

Compact

Sports/Pony Cars

Mid-Size

Model

Regs Share 1,503 24.1 1,214 19.5 655 10.5 621 10.0 414 6.7 Regs Share 3,809 44.7 1,371 16.1 1,252 14.7 689 8.1 635 7.5

Model

Regs Share Model

Regs Share 19,931 28.6 12,186 17.5 10,478 15.0 7,841 11.3 5,139 7.4 Regs Share 4,338 20.5 3,110 14.7 1,840 8.7 1,380 6.5

Honda Fit

Honda Civic Nissan Sentra Hyundai Elantra Toyota Corolla Volkswagen Jetta

15,835 24.6 Dodge Challenger 8,181 12.7 Ford Mustang 7,493 11.6 Chevrolet Camaro 6,569 10.2 Hyundai Veloster

1,348 30.4 Honda Accord 1,294 29.2 Nissan Altima 899 20.3 Toyota Camry 472 10.6 Hyundai Sonata

Kia Soul

Nissan Versa

Hyundai Accent Smartcar Fortwo

4,824 7.5 Mazda MX5

179 4.0 Ford Fusion

Large

Entry Luxury

Near Luxury

Luxury and High End Sports Cars

Model

Model Audi A3 Acura ILX

Regs Share Model

Nissan Maxima Dodge Charger Toyota Avalon

1,745 31.0 Mercedes C-Class 1,381 24.6 Infiniti Q50 1,202 21.4 BMW 3-Series

5,373 15.8 Mercedes E-Class 4,477 13.2 BMW 5-Series 4,236 12.5 Mercedes S-Class

Mercedes CLA-Class

Chrysler 300

BMW 2-Series

937 16.7 Lexus ES 200 3.6 Acura TLX/TL

3,453 10.2 Audi A6

Chevrolet Impala

BMW I3

3,039 8.9 BMW 7-Series

869 4.1

light trucks

Compact/Mid-Size Pickup

Full-Size Pickup

Mini Van

Large Van

Model

Regs Share 2,313 41.2

Model

Regs Share Model

Regs Share

Toyota Tacoma

Ram

8,191 40.4 Toyota Sienna 4,859 24.0 Honda Odyssey 4,144 20.4 Chrysler Pacifica 1,726 8.5 Dodge Caravan 1,218 6.0 Kia Sedona

6,862 33.8 Ford Transit Connect Van 3,030 40.9

Chevrolet Colorado 1,565 27.8

Ford F Series

6,287 30.9 Nissan NV 4,735 23.3 Ram Promaster 1,749 8.6 Mercedes Sprinter 574 2.8 Chevrolet Express

1,202 16.2 957 12.9 895 12.1 580 7.8

Nissan Frontier /Xe Honda Ridgeline

709 12.6 609 10.8 402 7.2

Chevrolet Silverado

GMC Sierra

GMC Canyon

Toyota Tundra

Subcompact SUV

Compact SUV

Mid-Size SUV

Large SUV

Model

Regs Share 3,391 27.2 2,884 23.1 1,916 15.4 1,569 12.6 925 7.4

Model

Regs Share Model

Regs Share 1,888 31.4 1,826 30.4

Honda HR-V

Nissan Rogue Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 Subaru Forester JeepWrangler

22,212 18.0 Jeep Grand Cherokee 15,149 20.0 Chevrolet Tahoe

Jeep Renegade Chevrolet Trax

20,495 16.6 Toyota Highlander 15,114 12.2 Ford Explorer 7,769 6.3 Honda Pilot 7,630 6.2 Subaru Outback

8,445 11.1 Chevrolet Suburban 7,126 9.4 GMC Yukon XL 7,038 9.3 GMC Yukon 5,251 6.9 Ford Expedition

669 11.1 609 10.1 394 6.6

Buick Encore Mazda CX-3

Luxury Subcompact SUV

Luxury Compact SUV

Luxury Mid-Size SUV

Luxury Large SUV

Model

Regs Share 1,732 39.2

Model

Regs Share Model 3,935 17.5 Lexus RX

Regs Share Model

Regs Share

BMW X1

Acura RDX Lexus NX

6,619 18.0 Mercedes GLS/GL-Class 2,757 37.2

Mercedes GLA-Class 1,319 29.9

3,314 14.7 Mercedes GLE/M-Class 4,713 12.8 Cadillac Escalade

1,828 24.7

Audi Q3

1,311 29.7

Audi Q5 BMW X3

3,007 13.3 Acura MDX 2,650 11.8 BMW X5

4,567 12.4 Land Rover Range Rover 1,377 18.6

Infiniti QX30

51 1.2

3,868 10.5 Infiniti QX80/QX56 3,525 9.6 Lincoln Navigator

393 5.3 392 5.3

Mercedes GLC/GLK-Class 2,538 11.3 Infinti QX60/JX

Data Source: IHS Markit.

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results.

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Sep ‘16 Sep ‘15 Through Through %

YTD 2016

YTD 2015

Sep ’16 Sep ‘15 Through Through %

YTD 2016

YTD 2015

Nov ’16 Nov ‘15 Change Through Nov Through Nov Change

Bronx

5,822 5,775

1% 22,761

21,865 50,916 15,823

4% 4% 1%

11,758 10,323 14% 47,106 16,023 14,582 10% 63,664

44,923 61,232

5% 4%

Brooklyn Dutchess

12,983 13,481 -4% 52,886

4,276 4,271 6,282 6,175

0% 15,912 2% 24,545

8,046 6,211

7,530

7% 29,853

30,013 -1%

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET January 2017 Issue PG: 8 Top three are shaded. Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester TOTALS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Brooklyn 101%

24,785 -1%

5,620 11% 24,824

24,935 80,328

0% 6%

28,845 29,236 -1% 109,358 104,903 4%

22,340 20,255 10% 84,995 9,773 10,153 -4% 37,903

5,387 5,452 -1% 20,758

20,420

2% 1% 2% 5% 6% 4% 3%

39,463 -4%

1,914 1,949 -2%

7,154

7,050

2,637

2,489

9,562

9,352

2% 3% 7% 3%

19,383 19,671 -1% 72,970

71,315 20,704 35,535

23,907 22,041 8% 92,880

90,490 20,806 23,572

5,554 5,449

2% 21,830

5,908 6,307

5,280 12% 22,230

9,521 10,282 -7% 37,801

5,925

6% 24,323

27,908 26,582 5% 104,231 99,969

36,630 33,550 9% 141,741 16,549 15,940 4% 63,747

135,593 5%

17,938 17,538 2% 66,451

64,736

62,789

145,813 145,861 0% 556,657 538,021 3% 166,089 153,688 8% 642,828 623,496 3%

Data Source: IHS Markit.

Seven Year Percent Change in County New Vehicle Registrations YTD 2016 Through November vs YTD 2009

As shown on this graph, all county/borough markets have posted signi cant gains since the low point of the market downturn in 2009.

101%

78%

65%

53%

48%

46%

43%

39%

Bronx

Rockland Staten Island Queens

Su olk

Nassau

Dutchess Manhattan Westchester Orange

Putnam

Data Source: IHS Markit.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, January 2017

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Markit.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Markit GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com

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