GNYADA May 2016 NY Auto Outlook

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Data Thru April 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

APRIL VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

April Estimate*

March Actual

YTD Through April*

2016 2015 % chg.

Industry Total

49,387 48,419 2.0% 52,870 55,250 -4.3% 192,648 178,219 8.1%

Cars

20,284 21,956 -7.6% 22,360 24,525 -8.8% 77,610 78,342 -0.9% 29,103 26,463 10.0% 30,510 30,725 -0.7% 115,038 99,877 15.2%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * April 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

13,484 13,391 0.7% 14,043 14,504 -3.2% 55,547 48,545 14.4% 7,873 8,221 -4.2% 8,797 9,780 -10.1% 29,951 29,190 2.6% 24,922 23,476 6.2% 26,571 27,384 -3.0% 95,000 89,128 6.6% 3,108 3,331 -6.7% 3,459 3,582 -3.4% 12,150 11,356 7.0%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NOTE: Themetro area new vehiclemarket is off to a great start in 2016. Despite some concerns that the market might be poised to cool off, reported registrations have remained red-hot. It’s unlikely that the market will maintain this pace for the remainder of the year, however the annual outlook has improved since the last release. Auto Outlook now believes there’s a good chance that metro area registrations for all of 2016 could exceed 610,000 units (see page 2).

1. Metro area new vehicle market increased an estimated 2% in April of 2016 versus a year earlier. 2. Metro area market was up 8.1% during the first four months of this year, stronger than the 3% improvement in the nation. 3. Light truck market share reached 59.7% thru April of this year, up 3.6 points versus a year earlier. 4. Ram , Chevrolet , Kia , Jeep , Mazda , and Nissan registratio ns were up by more than 10% so far this year. 5. Metro area used vehicle market increased 6% during the first three months of this year.

months 3

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2015 and 2016*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

60,000

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET May 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

Metro NY U.S.

2016 2015

The metro area market increased 8.1% during the rst four months of 2016, higher than in the nation.

8.1

3.5

3.0

2.0

Monthly registrations were up an estimated 2% in April of 2016.

-4.3

-6.1

Change April '16* vs April '15

Change March '16 vs March '15

Change YTD '16 Thru April * vs YTD '15

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for April 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are now predicted to exceed 610,000 units this year.

612,000

586,981

553,884

531,573

501,070

450,850

449,172

452,076

432,032

Data Source: IHS Automotive

384,763

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Forecast

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook May 2016 Issue

Detroit three market share approaches 30%

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru April*

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru April* vs. YTD 2015

Korean 6.3%

Detroit Three

1.6

European 15.5%

Korean

-0.1

Japanese 49.4%

European

-0.6

Detroit Three 28.8%

Japanese

-0.9

1.0

0.0

2.0

-1.0

*Figures for March 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for March 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

SUV share of area market improves by 2.4 points

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru April*

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru April* vs. YTD 2015

Pickups/Vans 10.1%

SUVs

2.4

Pickups/Vans

1.2

Passenger Cars 40.3%

Passenger Cars

-3.6

SUVs 49.6%

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

Gasoline powered vehicles account for over 97% of metro area market

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru March

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru March vs. YTD 2015

Diesel 0.7%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 1.8%

Gasoline

0.6

Electric

0.0

Diesel

-0.3

Gasoline 97.3%

Hybrid

-0.3

0.0

0.4

0.2

-0.4

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

April Estimate*

Three Month Period (Feb ‘16 – Apr ‘16*)

YTD—April*

2016

2015 % change

Current

Yr Earlier

% change

2016

2015 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET May 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

49,387 48,419

2.0% 151,314 141,721 6.8% 192,648 178,219 8.1%

20,284 21,956

-7.6%

61,515 62,388

-1.4%

77,610 78,342 -0.9%

29,103 26,463

10.0%

89,799 79,333

13.2%

115,038 99,877 15.2%

13,484 13,391

0.7%

42,668 38,302

11.4%

55,547 48,545 14.4%

7,873

8,221

-4.2%

23,883 23,473

1.7%

29,951 29,190 2.6%

24,922 23,476

6.2%

75,089 70,777

6.1%

95,000 89,128 6.6%

3,108

3,331

-6.7%

9,674

9,169

5.5%

12,150 11,356 7.0%

1,484 1,180 1,546

1,403 1,149 1,720

5.8% 2.7%

4,021 3,321 5,560 1,246 7,823 2,219 2,167 921

3,740 2,930 5,927 1,308 6,815 2,275 2,026 817

7.5%

4,900 3,874 7,113 1,262 1,675

4,703 3,581

4.2% 8.2%

13.3% -6.2% 12.7% -4.7% 14.8% -2.5%

-10.1%

7,421 -4.2%

256 338

271 490

-5.5%

997

26.6%

-31.0%

1,692 -1.0%

2,378

2,508

-5.2%

10,484 8,538 22.8%

579 722

723 766 119

-19.9%

3,225 2,710

3,005 2,529

7.3% 7.2%

-5.7%

7.0%

-21.0% 0.0% -3.0% 11.8% -11.2% 1.5% -1.6% 14.1% 2.9% -5.3% -6.7% 16.6%

247

306

-19.3%

335

376

-10.9%

3,211

10,168 9,308

9.2% 6.2%

12,788 11,855 7.9%

898

926

2,897

2,729

3,777

3,519

7.3%

7,561 2,018 1,032

6,765 2,272 1,017

20,971 18,864

11.2%

25,801 23,649 9.1%

6,540 3,322

6,469 3,273

1.1% 1.5% 7.3%

8,151 4,208

7,963 3,976

2.4% 5.8% 2.5%

235

219

286

279

3,968 1,090

3,479 1,059

11,326 9,912

14.3% 16.1% 11.3% 25.2% 8.3% -3.4% 5.3% 23.1% 2.0%

14,650 12,484 17.4%

3,134 1,515 5,534 1,285 2,706 6,893

2,700 1,361 5,425 1,026 2,499 7,135

3,999 1,947 6,926 1,677 3,481 8,586

3,393 17.9% 1,691 15.1%

411

434

1,484

1,590

6,792

2.0%

428 991

367 940

1,336 25.5% 3,134 11.1% 8,959 -4.2%

5.4% -3.3%

2,586

2,675

163 276

192 242

-15.1% 14.0% 10.3%

536 890

509 723

662

610 881

8.5%

1,138

29.2%

4,312

3,911

15,713 14,620

7.5% 1.4%

20,099 18,166 10.6%

309 632

307 581

0.7% 8.8% 3.5%

711

701

915

859

6.5%

2,313 6,361

1,861 6,162

24.3%

2,956 8,429

2,323 27.2%

2,224

2,148

3.2%

8,001

5.3%

17.5%

292

213

37.1%

329

244

34.8%

5,558

5,455 1,047

1.9%

15,566 15,463

0.7% 4.2%

20,011 19,816 1.0%

919 421 183

-12.2% 29.1%

3,028 1,371

2,907 1,007

3,919 1,746

3,599

8.9%

326 201

36.1% -1.8%

1,227 42.3%

-9.0%

482

491

589

621

-5.2%

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive * April 16 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook May 2016 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 thru April* vs. YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 thru April* Top 20 Selling Brands

13.4

U.S. Area

Ram

27.2

Honda

9.8

10.4

Chevrolet

22.8

Toyota

13.0

10.4

17.9

Kia

Nissan

7.8

7.6

17.4

Jeep

5.4

6.6

Mazda

11.1

Ford

Ram, Chevrolet, Kia, Jeep, Mazda, and Nissan had the largest percentage increases.

12.5

5.4

Nissan

10.6

Chevrolet

11.1

4.5

9.1

Honda

Mercedes

Mercedes market share in the metro area was 4.5% versus 2.2% in the nation.

2.2

4.4

Volkswagen

8.9

Subaru

4.0

4.2

8.2

Audi

Hyundai

3.7

Ford

7.9

BMW

2.0

3.6

GMC

7.3

Lexus

2.2

2.5

7.3

Chrysler

Acura

1.1

2.2

In niti

5.8

In niti

0.8

2.1

5.3

Subaru

Kia

3.8

2.0

4.2

Acura

Volkswagen

1.8

2.0

2.4

Hyundai

GMC

3.3

2.0

Lexus

Audi

1.2

1.8

1.0

Mazda

Toyota

1.9

1.7

Chrysler

-4.2

Mercedes

1.2

1.5

Ram

BMW

-4.2

2.9

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for April ‘16 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS March January‘15 – March‘16 YTDThrough March 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2016 2015 % change

56,498 56,389 0.2% 171,811 162,111 6.0% 171,811 162,111 6.0 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

31,218 31,214 0.0% 93,270 88,540 5.3% 93,270 88,540 5.3%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET May 2016 Issue 0% YTD change in new vehicle registrations YTD change in used vehicle registrations Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles

25,280 25,175 0.4% 78,541 73,571 6.8% 78,541 73,571 6.8%

19,674 20,121 -2.2% 59,861 58,169 2.9% 59,861 58,169 2.9%

8,678 8,442 2.8% 26,080 24,281 7.4% 26,080 24,281 7.4%

25,497 25,419 0.3% 77,920 72,685 7.2% 77,920 72,685 7.2%

2,649 2,407 10.1% 7,950 6,976 14.0% 7,950

6,976 14.0%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

3,576 3,114 14.8% 10,062 8,977 12.1% 10,062

8,977 12.1%

3,490 3,497 -0.2% 10,495 10,082 4.1% 10,495 10,082 4.1%

6,409 5,980 7.2% 18,783 16,472 14.0% 18,783 16,472 14.0%

3,093 3,175 -2.6% 10,277 10,070 2.1% 10,277 10,070 2.1%

2,252 2,248 0.2% 6,864 6,362 7.9% 6,864

6,362

7.9%

6-year-old vehicles or older

37,678 38,375 -1.8% 115,330 110,148 4.7% 115,330 110,148 4.7%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

YTD thru March Comparison

Used up 6.0%

New up 10.4%

10%

12%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook May 2016 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Jan ‘16 Jan ‘15 Through Through % Mar ’16 Mar ‘15 Change

Jan ’16 Jan ‘15 Through Through % Mar ’16 Mar ‘15 Change

YTD 2016

YTD

YTD 2016

YTD

2015 Change

2015 change

Bronx

5,772 5,207 11% 5,772 13,961 12,154 15% 13,961

5,207

11%

13,117 12,570 4% 13,117 16,897 16,172 4% 16,897

12,570 16,172

4% 4% 3% 9% 3% 9% 4% -3% 14% 10%

Brooklyn Dutchess

12,154 15%

3,983 3,708 5,824 5,769

7% 1%

3,983 5,824

3,708 5,769

7% 1%

8,026 6,337

7,776

8,026 6,337

7,776 6,530

Manhattan

6,530 -3%

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

28,618 25,648 12% 28,618

25,648 12%

22,592 20,640 9% 22,592 10,475 10,217 3% 10,475

20,640 10,217

5,325 4,876 1,796 1,680

9% 7%

5,325 1,796

4,876 1,680

9% 7%

2,453

2,257

2,453

2,257

18,819 16,494 14% 18,819 5,759 5,211 11% 5,759 10,264 8,546 20% 10,264 26,424 24,939 6% 26,424 16,716 15,568 7% 16,716

16,494 14%

24,724 23,703 4% 24,724

23,703

5,211 8,546

11% 20%

5,965 6,723

5,249 14% 5,965 6,136 10% 6,723

5,249 6,136

Staten Island

Suffolk

24,939 15,568

6% 7%

37,766 34,870 8% 37,766 16,736 15,991 5% 16,736

34,870 15,991

8% 5%

Westchester

TOTALS

143,261 129,800 10% 143,261 129,800 10% 171,811 162,111 6% 171,811 162,111 6%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2016 Through March

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Nissan Toyota

19.1 12.5 15.1

15.2 13.4 12.3

12.8

9.8 5.9 9.2 5.4 5.2 2.7 3.7 2.7 8.9 4.6 2.6 1.8 2.0 1.0 1.1 5.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.9 3.7 1.6 2.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.8

11.0 11.1

10.4 10.3 12.3

11.6

16.0 14.6 12.6

12.0 11.7 13.1

11.1 14.1

10.7

14.0

8.8

6.5 9.1 9.4 7.5 7.9 3.6 2.5 2.9 2.0 1.8 0.6 1.7 3.3 4.3 1.3 0.9 1.6 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1

9.8 9.4 8.8 8.3 9.2 4.0 5.2 3.4 3.2 2.5 1.6 1.5 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.7 0.9 2.1 3.0 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.2

7.1 8.1 7.8 5.9 5.0 7.6 3.1 5.0 5.2 4.2 3.9 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.6 0.5 1.7 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4

10.1

8.0 8.2 5.9 5.5 3.5 3.9 5.5 4.6 4.0 2.4 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.9 2.4 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2

8.5 8.2 8.8 4.2 2.3 5.6 2.8 3.0 4.6 1.2 4.0 2.3 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0

Jeep Ford

5.7 6.3 4.6 2.6 5.9 2.8 1.9 2.5 3.1 1.3 1.6 2.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.5 2.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.5 0.1 0.2 0.0

5.4 5.6 3.0 2.2 3.4 3.3 3.8 6.2 2.1 3.6 1.6 1.8 1.0 1.5 5.6 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.4 8.7 9.1 3.9 1.9 2.1 1.1 2.7 0.3 2.0 2.6 2.9 1.2 0.9 3.0 2.4 1.7 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1

7.4

7.0 4.4 4.5 3.3 4.3 4.2 3.5 4.5 2.8 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1

5.7 7.9 4.2 6.4 4.8 3.4 3.1 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.3 2.6 1.4 1.5 4.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1

11.3

Chevrolet Subaru Hyundai Mercedes

7.5 6.1 5.2 1.8 2.1 1.2 1.9 0.5 1.2 3.0 2.0 0.7 2.5 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 0.1

10.4

13.5

10.0

BMW Lexus Acura

Infiniti

Volkswagen

Kia

GMC Audi

Chrysler

Mazda

Ram

Dodge

Land Rover

Cadillac

Volvo

Lincoln

Buick

Mitsubishi

Porsche

MINI Tesla

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2016 thru March

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2016 thru March

Honda Civic Honda CRV Honda Accord Nissan Rogue

Nissan Altima Honda Accord Toyota Camry

5,864

2,240

5,031

2,194

4,563

2,161

Mercedes GLE/M-Class Ford F Series Lexus RX Nissan Maxima Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Toyota Highlander Volkswagen Jetta Mercedes E-Class Toyota Sienna BMW 5-Series Nissan Sentra Honda Pilot Mercedes C-Class Toyota RAV4 Toyota Corolla Hyundai Sonata Jeep Grand Cherokee BMW 3-Series Honda CRV Nissan Rogue Honda Civic

4,110

1,659

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET May 2016 Issue PG: 8 0 Toyota Corolla Ford Escape Lexus RX Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Sienna Honda Pilot Honda Odyssey JeepWrangler Ford Fusion Subaru Forester Ford Explorer Toyota Highlander Ram Hyundai Sonata Chrysler Town & Country Jeep Cherokee Nissan Sentra Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee

3,859

1,499

3,511

1,448

3,357

1,345

Toyota Camry was the best selling used vehicle. (Only includes vehicles six years old or newer.)

2,685

1,290

4 of the top 6 sellers in the new vehicle market were SUVs: Nissan Rogue, Honda CR-V, Jeep Grand Cherokee, and Toyota RAV4.

2,488

1,220

2,397

1,160

2,233

1,142

2,175

962 955

2,083

2,031 2,030

892 891

2,020

890 857

1,831 1,819

766

1,801 1,758 1,757

750 748 737 719

1,710

1,706

694 676

1,676 1,671

657

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

New retail light vehicle registrations

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer)

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. April 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (April) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, May 2016

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com

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