GNYADA November 2015 NY Auto Outlook

Data Thru October 2015

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

OCTOBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

October Estimate*

September Actual

YTD – October*

2015 2014 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

Industry Total

47,015 42,56 11.0% 52,331 48,842 7.1% 491,421 462,524 6.2%

Cars

20,250 19,867 1.9% 22,219 23,161 -4.1% 216,355 220,962 -2.1% 26,765 22,489 19.0% 30,112 25,681 17.3% 275,066 241,562 13.9%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * October 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

12,080 10,668 13.2% 14,089 13,348 5.6% 133,025 121,047 9.9% 8,334 7,772 7.2% 8,383 7,871 6.5% 80,613 78,903 2.2% 23,790 21,453 10.9% 26,475 24,322 8.9% 245,938 230,849 6.5% 2,811 2,463 14.1% 3,384 3,301 2.5% 31,845 31,725 0.4%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

1.) Area new vehicle market increased an estimated 11% in October of 2015 versus a year earlier. The October increase followed a 7.1% improvement in September. 2. Area market increased 6.2% during the first ten months of this year versus a year earlier, stronger than the national 5.5% improvement average . 3. SUV market share was 47.1% thru October of this year, up 3.7 points versus a year earlier. 4. Subaru , Infiniti , Acura , Chevrolet , GMC , Lexus , and Jeep registrations were up by more than 17% in the first ten months of this year. 5. Area used vehicle market increased by 3.7% during the first nine months of 2015.

NOTE: The metro area new vehicle market continued its pattern of posting impressive gains. Registrations for the entire year are now predicted to increase by more than 5.6% from 2014, with the annual total possibly exceeding 585,000 units. It’s still early to officially predict sales volume for 2016, but at this point, next year’s total seems likely to exceed 600,000 units. Historical data was updated by IHS Automotive. Figures for past months will differ slightly from those presented in previous issues.

10

months

3.7%

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF SEPTEMBER RESULTS

10%

September new retail light vehicle registrations in the metro area were up 7.1% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected a 9% increase. Auto Outlook is predicting that October sales increased by 11% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the December, 2015 release. Percent Change in Area Registrations September 2015 vs. September 2014

9.0%

8%

7.1%

6%

4%

2%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2015 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

0%

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2014 and 2015*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

15%

Metro NY U.S.

The area market increased 6.2% during the rst ten months of 2015, higher than the national average.

2014 2015

12%

13.6

9%

11.0

6%

7.1

6.2

5.5

5.3

Monthly registrations increased by an estimated 11% in October 2015.

3%

0%

% Change Oct '15 vs Oct '14

% Change Sep '15 vs Sep '14

% Change YTD '15 Thru Oct* vs YTD '14

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for October 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Area registrations are predicted to increase by more than 31,000 units in 2015.

585,000

553,884

531,573

501,070

452,076

449,172

450,850

432,032

384,763

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 Forecast

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2015 Issue

Detroit Three Market Share Moves Higher in 2015

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru October*

Change in share: YTD ‘15 thru October * vs. YTD ‘14

Korean 6.5%

Detroit Three

0.9

European 16.4%

Japanese

0.1

Japanese 50.0%

Korean

-0.4

Detroit Three 27.1%

European

-0.6

1.0

0.4

0.8

0.0

-0.4

*Figures for October 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for October 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Passenger Car Share Falls to 44%

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru October*

Change in share: YTD ‘15 thru October * vs. YTD ‘14

Pickups/Vans 8.9%

SUVs

3.7

Pickups/Vans

Passenger Cars 44.0%

-0.1

SUVs 47.1%

Passenger Cars

-3.8

0.0

2.0

1.0

3.0 4.0

-2.0

-1.0

-4.0

-3.0

Hybrid and Diesel Powered Market Share Declines

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru September

Change in share: YTD ‘15 vs. YTD ‘14

Diesel 1.0%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 2.2%

Gasoline

0.9

Electric

0.1

Diesel

-0.3

Gasoline 96.6%

Hybrid

-0.7

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

October Estimate*

Three Month Period (Aug ‘15 – Oct ‘15*)

YTD – October*

2015

2014 % change

Current

Yr Earlier

% change

2015*

2014 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2015 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

47,015 42,356 11.0% 156,814 140,266 11.8% 491,421 462,524 6.2%

20,250 19,867

1.9%

67,457 67,083

0.6%

216,355 220,962 -2.1%

26,765 22,489

19.0%

89,357 73,183

22.1%

275,066 241,562 13.9%

12,080 10,668

13.2%

41,670 36,481

14.2%

133,025 121,047 9.9%

8,334

7,772

7.2%

25,605 23,245

10.2%

80,613 78,903 2.2%

23,790 21,453

10.9%

79,347 71,430

11.1%

245,938 230,849 6.5%

2,811

2,463

14.1%

10,192 9,110

11.9%

31,845 31,725 0.4%

1,332 1,023 1,874

1,307

1.9%

3,925 3,331 5,998 1,554 7,465 1,806 2,217 924

3,577 2,950 5,802 1,686 5,934 2,092 2,152 966

9.7%

12,585 10,586 18.9%

896

14.2% -5.9% -2.5% 10.5% 15.0% -1.5% 9.7% -2.4% 11.8% 15.3% 17.2% 20.4% -5.8% 30.4% 92.7% 10.7% -6.8% 32.4% 7.0% 9.5%

12.9% 3.4% -4.3% -7.8% 25.8% -13.7%

10,336 9,554

8.2%

1,992

19,643 20,073 -2.1%

308 549

316 497

2,903 4,670

3,138 -7.5% 5,729 -18.5%

1,920

1,669

24,183 20,354 18.8%

475 658

482 600

7,051 6,951

6,599

6.8%

3.0% 1.0%

7,476 -7.0% 1,158 -15.7%

81

83

301

298

976

2,702

2,417

10,044 8,439

19.0% 13.9%

31,907 29,670 7.5%

759

658

2,594

2,277

8,987

7,574 18.7%

6,370 1,984 1,068

5,956 1,693

21,434 20,887

2.6%

66,363 66,443 -0.1% 22,287 22,198 0.4% 10,377 8,671 19.7%

7,195 3,231

6,340 2,380

13.5% 35.8% -18.8% 22.6% 74.9% 15.9% 11.8% 14.5% 13.6% 25.7% 20.8% 10.4% 8.8% 8.7%

887

49

52

160

197

646

725

-10.9%

3,853

2,955

11,873 9,688

35,830 30,552 17.3%

843 451

770 234

3,013 1,287 5,744 1,155 3,139 7,717

2,770

9,574 4,243

9,527

0.5%

736

3,020 40.5%

1,541

1,392

4,954 1,033 2,742 7,100

18,240 15,410 18.4%

359 985

385 744

3,679 9,044

3,423 9,001

7.5% 0.5%

2,641

2,614

1.0%

23,946 24,437 -2.0%

127 225

169 193

-24.9% 16.6%

526 763

463 607

1,922 2,379

1,811

6.1%

2,051 16.0%

4,301

3,942

9.1% 8.3% 0.5%

16,134 13,355

49,361 45,651 8.1%

209 666

193 663

720

652

2,443 6,415

2,230 6,048

9.6% 6.1%

2,101 7,041

2,057 5,844

2.1%

2,276

1,938

17.4%

20.5% -17.7%

21,731 18,066 20.3%

12

11

9.1%

107

130

576

408

41.2%

5,626 1,104

5,089 1,126

10.6% -2.0% 82.3%

17,862 17,077

4.6% 1.6%

55,760 54,951 1.5% 11,121 11,395 -2.4%

3,713 1,203

3,653

443 201

243 190

850 578

41.5% -7.1%

3,563 1,729

2,768 28.7% 1,827 -5.4%

5.8%

537

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive *October ’15 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2015 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Area Registrations YTD ‘15 thru October* vs. YTD 2014 Top 20 Selling Brands

Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2015 thru October* Top 20 Selling Brands

13.5

Subaru

20.3

Honda

U.S. Area

9.5

11.3

19.7

In niti

Toyota

13.2

10.0

18.9

Nissan

Acura

7.6

7.3

18.8

Jeep

Chevrolet

5.1

6.5

Ford

GMC

18.7

12.5

4.9

Chevrolet

Lexus

18.4

10.8

4.9

Mercedes

Jeep

17.3

2.2

Subaru, In niti, Acura, Chevrolet, GMC, Lexus, and Jeep registrations increased by more than 17%.

4.5

Hyundai

8.2

Audi

4.2

Area market shares for Honda, Mercedes, Nissan, Jeep, BMW, Lexus, Acura, and In niti are much higher than in the rest of the nation.

4.4

Subaru

Nissan

8.1

3.8 4.0

BMW

7.5

Ford

2.1

3.7

Lexus

Chrysler

6.8

2.2

2.6

Acura

1.5

Toyota

1.2

2.3

Volkswagen

0.5

Mazda

2.1

2.1

Audi

0.5

Kia

1.3

2.1

In niti

0.4

Hyundai

0.8

1.9

Kia

-0.1

Honda

3.7

1.8

GMC

-2.0

Mercedes

3.3

1.8

Mazda

-2.1

BMW

2.0

1.4 1.4

Chrysler

-2.4

Volkswagen

1.4

Dodge

Dodge

-7.0

2.6

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for October ‘15 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS September July‘15 – September ‘15 YTD – September 2015 2014 % change 2015 2014 % change 2015 2014 % change

53,671 51,869 3.5% 168,844 171,696 -1.7% 523,479 504,800 3.7 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

29,336 28,849 1.7% 94,033 96,470 -2.5% 289,914 282,183 2.7%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2015 Issue Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean

24,335 23,020 5.7% 74,811 75,226 -0.6% 233,565 222,617 4.9%

18,777 18,756 0.1% 58,854 61,355 -4.1% 184,075 183,551 0.3%

8,081 8,071 0.1% 25,647 26,891 -4.6% 80,642 77,264 4.4%

24,347 22,675 7.4% 76,652 75,608 1.4% 235,512 221,895 6.1%

2,466 2,367 4.2% 7,691 7,842 -1.9% 23,250 22,090 5.3%

1-year-old or newer vehicles

4,635 4,636 0.0% 12,640 13,619 -7.2% 34,301 32,318 6.1%

2-year-old vehicles

4,990 4,265 17.0% 13,691 13,551 1.0% 38,684 33,890 14.1%

3-year-old vehicles

4,842 4,999 -3.1% 15,165 17,543 -13.6% 53,765 53,578 0.3%

4-year-old vehicles

2,268 2,042 11.1% 7,152 6,858 4.3% 26,595 23,380 13.8%

5-year-old vehicles

1,983 1,768 12.2% 6,302 5,867 7.4% 19,846 17,262 15.0%

6-year-old vehicles or older

34,953 34,159 2.3% 113,894 114,258 -0.3% 350,288 344,372 1.7%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Year-To-Date thru September Comparison

YTD thru September % change in used vehicle registrations

Used up 3.7%

YTD thru September % change in new vehicle registrations

New up 5.8%

0%

1%

2%

4%

5%

6%

3%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2015 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Jul ‘15 Jul ‘14

YTD ‘15

YTD ‘14

Jul ’15 Jul ‘14

YTD ‘15

YTD ‘14

Through Through % Through Through %

Through Through % Through Through %

Sep ’15 Sep ‘14 Change

September September Change

Sep ’15 Sep ‘14 Change

September September change

Bronx

6,575 5,500 20% 18,129 15,383 12,559 22% 42,013 4,945 4,438 11% 13,159

15,722 15% 36,838 14%

11,428 11,292 1% 38,161 16,398 16,199 1% 51,732

35,673 49,024 24,676 20,964 65,780 31,096 72,477 16,752 19,363 7,437

7% 6% 2% 2% 2% 6% 4% 5% 3% 2%

Brooklyn Dutchess

12,411 20,669 82,408 16,107

6% 1% 4% 6% 3% 4% 8% 1% 4%

8,410 6,628

8,534 -1% 25,106 7,027 -6% 21,342

Manhattan

7,390 6,995

6% 20,817

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

31,639 29,163 8% 85,803 6,468 5,738 13% 17,033

21,746 22,662 -4% 67,111 10,899 10,804 1% 32,853

2,192 2,012

9%

5,816

5,632

2,619

2,685 -2%

7,723

21,987 18,913 16% 58,800

53,097 11%

24,314 24,272 0% 76,367

6,328 5,830

9% 17,178

16,498 26,808 82,616 51,362

5,674 6,624

5,703 -1% 17,311

Staten Island

11,363 9,233 23% 28,964 29,850 29,579 1% 83,061 19,881 18,199 9% 53,633

6,640

0% 19,711

Suffolk

36,655 38,456 -5% 113,720 17,449 17,422 0% 52,342

111,004 2%

Westchester

50,554

4%

TOTALS

164,001 148,159 11% 444,406 420,168 6% 168,844 171,696 -2% 523,479 504,800 4%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2015 Through September

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

17.4 17.1 12.8

16.8 15.3 11.3

14.6

9.6

11.9

12.2 12.7

13.7

16.1 15.8 13.5

12.9 13.0 10.6

13.0

11.6 10.0

14.4

9.4 7.9 6.3 8.7 8.5 2.2 4.3 2.5 0.9 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 2.9 2.8 3.5 1.0 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

10.4

9.0

8.8 6.7 8.1 7.5 6.1 3.2 4.7 2.1 1.6 1.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 1.8 3.7 2.0 1.5 2.1 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1

8.0

8.6 7.1 7.8 5.7 4.2 6.0 3.0 7.5 5.3 4.1 4.4 2.1 3.1 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2

4.9 6.0 4.6 2.7 2.6 3.8 8.4 4.8 2.3 2.5 5.4 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.7 0.5 1.5 0.3 2.3 0.3 1.2 1.0

10.4

9.4 7.0

11.7

9.7 8.7 8.2 7.9 3.6 5.6 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.8 2.9 1.8 1.5 2.4 1.9 2.2 1.1 1.6 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1

Jeep Ford

5.9 6.2 4.6 3.0 5.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 3.3 1.6 0.7 1.1 2.8 1.1 1.2 2.0 2.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.1

5.1 5.4 2.6 4.3 3.7 2.4 3.8 6.4 2.3 2.1 1.6 3.4 1.6 1.0 1.0 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2

8.0 5.7 4.8 5.9 4.5 3.4 4.8 4.2 2.7 2.2 2.6 2.5 1.6 2.8 2.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.0 4.0 3.9 4.7 4.6 3.2 3.5 4.1 2.6 2.1 1.4 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2

5.7 8.0 3.7 4.0 5.4 6.9 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.5 1.7 1.6 2.7 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1

7.7 9.9 4.5 4.3 5.7 2.2 3.1 5.0 1.3 2.3 1.3 3.7 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

10.6

Chevrolet Mercedes Hyundai

6.8 1.9 5.7 6.8 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.7 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.7 0.7 0.2 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1

10.3

Subaru

10.1

13.9

BMW Lexus Acura

Volkswagen

Audi

Infiniti

Kia

GMC

Mazda

Chrysler

Dodge

Ram

Cadillac

Land Rover

Lincoln

Volvo Buick

Porsche

Mitsubishi

MINI FIAT

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD ‘15 thru September

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD ‘15 thru September

Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Honda Accord

Nissan Altima Nissan Rogue Honda CRV Honda Accord

7,530

16,994

6,970

16,025

6,723

15,596

Honda Odyssey Toyota Highlander In niti G Ford E-Series Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Nissan Maxima Mercedes E-Class BMW 5-Series Nissan Sentra Volkswagen Jetta Toyota Sienna Mercedes C-Class Toyota RAV4 Honda Pilot Jeep Grand Cherokee BMW 3-Series Hyundai Sonata Toyota Corolla Honda CRV Nissan Rogue Honda Civic

5,252

12,377

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2015 Issue PG: 8 0 Nissan Sentra Ram Mercedes C-Class Honda Odyssey Ford Explorer Ford Escape Ford Escape Lexus RX Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Corolla Hyundai Elantra Toyota Sienna JeepWrangler Subaru Forester Jeep Cherokee Honda Pilot Hyundai Sonata Toyota RAV4 Toyota Camry Jeep Grand Cherokee Honda Civic

4,600

11,960

4,514

11,925

Three mid-sized sedans (Accord,

3,882

11,366

3,370 3,368 3,324

11,162

Camry, and Altima) stayed on top of area used vehicle market.

7,473

7,098

7,052

3,281

3,116 3,015

6,351

Accord, CR-V, and Rogue collectively account for 11% of the

6,167 6,013 5,830 5,817

2,544 2,487

metro area new vehicle market.

2,472 2,437 2,428

5,797 5,775 5,722 5,645

2,414

2,239 2,221

5,390

2,136 2,093 2,067 1,979

5,109 5,078 5,001 4,922

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

New retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. October 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (October) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, November 2015

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com