GNYADA December 2015 NY Auto Outlook

Data Thru November 2015

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

NOVEMBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

November Estimate*

October Actual

YTD – November*

2015 2014 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

2015 2014 % chg.

Industry Total

43,536 41,862 4.0% 45,944 42,356 8.5% 533,886 504,386 5.8%

Cars

18,301 19,473 -6.0% 19,150 19,867 -3.6% 233,556 240,435 -2.9% 25,235 22,389 12.7% 26,794 22,489 19.1% 300,330 263,951 13.8%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * November 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

11,188 10,679 4.8% 11,915 10,668 11.7% 144,048 131,726 9.4% 8,608 8,534 0.9% 7,597 7,772 -2.3% 88,484 87,437 1.2% 20,949 20,148 4.0% 23,635 21,453 10.2% 266,732 250,997 6.3% 2,791 2,501 11.6% 2,797 2,463 13.6% 34,622 34,226 1.2%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

1.) Metro area new vehicle market increased an estimated 4% in November of 2015 versus a year earlier. The increase in November followed an 8.5% improvement in October . 2.) Metro area market increased 5.8% during the first eleven months of this year versus a year earlier, stronger than the 4.5% improvement in the nation. 3. Passenger market share was 43.8% thru November of this year, down 3.9 points versus a year earlier. 4.) Chevrolet , Infiniti , Subaru , Lexus , GMC , Acura , and Jeep registrations were up by more than 15% in the first eleven months of this year.

NOTE: With eleven months now in the books, it’s certain that the metro area new vehicle market will improve for the sixth consecutive year, in 2015. New retail light vehicle registrations are likely to approach 585,000 units, a 5.5% improvement from 2014. And the way it looks now, another increase is also highly likely in 2016. There’s a chance that registrations might exceed 600,000 units next year, a significant increase from the total of about 385,000 units in 2009.

5.) Metro area used vehicle market increased by 3.4% during the first ten months of 2015.

3.4%

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF SEPTEMBER RESULTS

12%

October new retail light vehicle registrations in the metro area were up 8.5% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected an 11% increase. Auto Outlook is predicting that November sales increased by 4% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the January, 2016 release. Percent Change in Area Registrations October 2015 vs. October 2014

10%

11.0%

8%

8.5%

6%

4%

2%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET December 2015 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

0%

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2014 and 2015*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

10%

Metro NY U.S.

The metro area market increased 5.8% during the rst eleven months of 2015, higher than in the nation.

2014 2015

8%

8.5

6%

6.0

5.8

4%

4.5

4.0

Monthly registrations increased by an estimated 4% in November 2015.

2%

1.2

0%

% Change Nov '15 vs Nov '14

% Change Oct '15 vs Oct '14

% Change YTD '15 Thru Nov* vs YTD '14

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for November 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are predicted to increase by more than 30,000 units in 2015.

584,600

553,884

531,573

501,070

452,076

449,172

450,850

432,032

384,763

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 Forecast

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook December 2015 Issue

Detroit Three Market Share Approaches 27% in 2015

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru November*

Change in share: YTD ‘15 thru November * vs. YTD ‘14

Korean 6.5%

Detroit Three

0.8

European 16.6%

Japanese

0.2

Japanese 50.0%

Korean

-0.3

Detroit Three 26.9%

European

-0.7

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-0.2

-0.6

-0.4

*Figures for November 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for November 2015 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

SUVs Post Big Gains; Passenger Cars are Down

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru November*

Change in share: YTD ‘15 thru November * vs. YTD ‘14

Pickups/Vans 8.8%

SUVs

3.8

Pickups/Vans

-0.1

Passenger Cars 43.8%

Passenger Cars

-3.9

SUVs 47.4%

4.0

0.0

3.0

1.0

2.0

-1.0

-2.0

-4.0

-3.0

Hybrid and Diesel Powered Market Share Declines

Market Share - YTD 2015 thru October

Change in share: YTD ‘15 vs. YTD ‘14

Diesel 1.0%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 2.2%

Gasoline

0.9

Electric

0.1

Diesel

-0.3

Gasoline 96.6%

Hybrid

-0.7

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

November Estimate*

Three Month Period (Sep ‘15 – Nov ‘15*)

YTD – November*

2015

2014 % change

Current

Yr Earlier

% change

2015*

2014 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET December 2015 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

43,536 41,862

4.0% 141,811 133,060 6.6% 533,886 504,386 5.8%

18,301 19,473

-6.0%

59,670 62,501

-4.5%

233,556 240,435 -2.9%

25,235 22,389

12.7%

82,141 70,559

16.4%

300,330 263,951 13.8%

11,188 10,679

4.8%

37,192 34,695

7.2%

144,048 131,726 9.4%

8,608

8,534

0.9%

24,588 24,177

1.7%

88,484 87,437 1.2%

20,949 20,148

4.0%

71,059 65,923

7.8%

266,732 250,997 6.3%

2,791

2,501

11.6%

8,972

8,265

8.6%

34,622 34,226 1.2%

963

1,138 1,074 2,089

-15.4%

3,611 3,383 5,564 1,317 6,790 1,770 1,820 747

3,547 3,001 6,049 1,516 5,692 2,128 1,956 889

1.8%

13,607 11,724 16.1% 11,516 10,628 8.4% 21,434 22,162 -3.3%

1,107 2,215

3.1% 6.0%

12.7% -8.0% -16.0% -13.1% 19.3% -16.8% -7.0% 7.6% 17.3%

199 398

233 381

-14.6% 4.5% 7.7% -9.6% -5.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.8% -0.9% 14.9% 84.4% 9.8% 0.3% 9.8% -9.2% -9.0% 6.0% 6.8% -2.7% 3.2% 4.6% 11.8% -22.6% 95.7% -19.1% 5.6% 5.4% -14.0% 23.1% 4.2%

3,067 4,963

3,371 -9.0% 6,110 -18.8%

1,996

1,853

26,518 22,207 19.4%

656 528

726 556

7,752 7,343 1,085

7,325

5.8%

8,032 -8.6% 1,243 -12.7%

85

85

310

288

2,529

2,451

9,298 2,425

7,924 2,329

34,836 32,121 8.5%

831

824

4.1% 5.9%

9,839

8,398 17.2%

5,790 2,016

5,842 1,755

19,392 18,306

72,319 72,285 0.0% 24,258 23,953 1.3% 11,328 9,575 18.3%

6,381 3,077

5,778 2,629

10.4% 17.0% -23.6% 12.2%

953

904

49

57

146

191

696

782

-11.0%

3,369

2,736

10,204 9,097

38,344 33,288 15.2% 10,366 10,273 0.9%

777 437

746 237

2,593 1,485 5,190 1,141 2,646 7,139

2,487

4.3%

687

116.2%

4,815

3,257 47.8%

1,767

1,610

4,821 1,094 2,379 8,124

7.7% 4.3%

20,027 17,020 17.7%

367 759

366 691

4,069 9,695

3,789 9,692

7.4% 0.0%

11.2% -12.1%

2,647

2,914

25,902 27,351 -5.3%

151 194

166 183

459 695

457 602

0.4%

2,089 2,588

1,977

5.7%

15.4% 14.4% 8.1% -5.9% 11.4% -4.3%

2,234 15.8%

3,969

3,718

14,293 12,492

53,694 49,369 8.8%

218 546

224 529

668

618

2,691 6,862

2,454 6,577

9.7% 4.3%

1,791 6,341

1,903 5,694

1,725

1,649

23,280 19,715 18.1%

19

17

132

138

647

425

52.2%

4,653 1,001

4,407 1,294

15,630 15,442

1.2% 7.0%

59,982 59,358 1.1% 12,467 12,689 -1.7%

3,715 1,209

3,472

499 123

255 152

775 555

56.0% -19.1%

3,968 1,839

3,023 31.3% 1,979 -7.1%

449

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive *November ’15 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook December 2015 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD ‘15 thru November* vs. YTD 2014 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2015 thru November* Top 20 Selling Brands

13.5

U.S. Area

Chevrolet

19.4

Honda

9.7

11.2

18.3

In niti

Toyota

13.2

10.1

18.1

Nissan

Subaru

7.5

7.2

17.7

Jeep

Lexus

5.0

6.5

Ford

GMC

17.2

12.5

5.0

Chevrolet

Acura

16.1

10.8

4.9

Mercedes

Jeep

15.2

Honda’s metro area market share was 13.5% versus 9.7% in the nation.

2.2

Chevrolet, In niti, Subaru, Lexus, GMC, Acura, and Jeep registrations increased by more than 15%.

4.5

Hyundai

8.8

Nissan

4.1

4.4

Subaru

Ford

8.5

3.8

4.0

BMW

8.4

Audi

2.1

3.8

Lexus

Chrysler

5.8

2.2

2.5

Acura

1.3

Hyundai

1.2

2.3 2.1 2.2

Volkswagen

1.1

Toyota

Audi

0.9

Kia

1.3

2.1

In niti

0.0

Honda

0.8

1.9

Kia

0.0

Mazda

3.7

1.8

Mazda

-1.7

Volkswagen

2.0 1.8

GMC

-3.3

BMW

3.3

1.5 1.4 1.4

Chrysler

-5.3

Mercedes

Dodge

Dodge

-8.6

2.5

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for November ‘15 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS October August‘15 – October‘15 YTD – October 2015 2014 % change 2015 2014 % change 2015 2014 % change

51,722 51,619 0.2% 167,897 169,887 -1.2% 575,201 556,419 3.4 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

28,037 28,166 -0.5% 92,546 94,401 -2.0% 317,951 310,349 2.4%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET December 2015 Issue Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean

23,685 23,453 1.0% 75,351 75,486 -0.2% 257,250 246,070 4.5%

18,260 19,024 -4.0% 59,148 61,343 -3.6% 202,335 202,575 -0.1%

7,905 7,941 -0.5% 25,256 26,365 -4.2% 88,547 85,205 3.9%

23,180 22,269 4.1% 75,700 74,339 1.8% 258,692 244,164 6.0%

2,377 2,385 -0.3% 7,793 7,840 -0.6% 25,627 24,475 4.7%

1-year-old or newer vehicles

4,713 5,108 -7.7% 13,504 14,836 -9.0% 39,014 37,426 4.2%

2-year-old vehicles

4,654 4,475 4.0% 14,069 13,962 0.8% 43,338 38,365 13.0%

3-year-old vehicles

4,078 4,523 -9.8% 13,889 16,321 -14.9% 57,843 58,101 -0.4%

4-year-old vehicles

2,122 2,051 3.5% 7,358 6,723 9.4% 28,717 25,431 12.9%

5-year-old vehicles

1,870 1,769 5.7% 6,446 5,811 10.9% 21,716 19,031 14.1%

6-year-old vehicles or older

34,285 33,693 1.8% 112,631 112,234 0.4% 384,573 378,065 1.7%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Year-To-Date thru October Comparison

YTD thru October % change in used vehicle registrations

Used up 3.4%

YTD thru October % change in new vehicle registrations

New up 6.0%

0%

4%

3%

5%

2%

6%

1%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook December 2015 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Aug ‘15 Aug ‘14

YTD ‘15

YTD ‘14

Aug ’15 Aug‘14

YTD ‘15

YTD ‘14

Through Through % Through Through %

Through Through % Through Through %

Oct ’15 Oct ‘14 Change

October

October Change

Oct ’15 Oct ‘14 Change

October

October change

Bronx

6,244 5,276 18% 20,009 14,336 11,899 20% 46,342 4,691 4,212 11% 14,518

17,319 16% 40,532 14%

11,296 11,110 2% 41,652 16,012 16,076 0% 56,652

39,054 54,120 27,316 22,998 72,463 34,354 79,912 18,462 21,331 8,216

7% 5% 1% 1% 2% 6% 4% 5% 3% 2%

Brooklyn Dutchess

13,711 22,648 90,610 17,785

6% 1% 5% 5% 3% 4% 9% 1% 5%

8,349 6,277

8,570 -3% 27,559 6,755 -7% 23,203

Manhattan

6,695 6,478

3% 22,770

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

30,646 27,238 13% 95,023

21,886 22,426 -2% 73,905 11,404 10,772 6% 36,467

5,949 5,472 2,020 1,966

9% 18,671

3%

6,393

6,218

2,590

2,612 -1%

8,535

21,072 18,049 17% 65,021

58,671 11%

23,931 24,080 -1% 83,745

5,744 5,463

5% 18,889

18,110 29,529 90,747 56,644

5,626 6,642

5,631 6,521

0% 19,104 2% 21,747

Staten Island

10,957 8,723 26% 32,238 28,581 28,109 2% 91,239 18,808 17,381 8% 59,237

Suffolk

36,468 38,199 -5% 125,048 17,416 17,135 2% 57,584

122,458 2%

Westchester

55,735

3%

TOTALS

155,743 140,266 11% 490,350 462,524 6% 167,897 169,887 -1% 575,201 556,419 3%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2015 Through October

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

17.7 17.2 12.7

16.8 15.2 11.4

14.6

9.7

12.0

12.2 12.7

14.1

16.1 15.8 13.5

13.0 13.2 10.5

12.9

11.7 10.0

14.5

9.5 7.8 6.3 8.7 8.5 2.2 4.3 2.5 0.9 2.8 2.2 1.2 0.4 2.8 2.8 3.4 1.0 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1

10.5

8.9

8.9 6.6 8.2 7.6 6.1 3.1 4.5 2.0 1.5 1.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 1.7 3.7 2.0 1.5 2.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1

8.1

8.6 7.0 7.7 5.7 4.2 5.9 3.0 7.6 5.2 4.1 4.5 2.2 3.2 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3

4.9 6.0 4.6 2.6 2.5 3.8 8.2 4.7 2.4 2.6 5.4 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.2 0.4 1.5 3.8 0.5 1.6 0.3 2.2 0.3 1.2 1.0

10.4

9.5 7.0

11.9

9.7 8.6 8.3 7.9 3.6 5.6 3.9 3.1 2.4 1.9 3.0 1.8 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.0 1.6 2.6 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1

Jeep Ford

5.9 6.1 4.6 2.9 5.3 2.8 2.3 2.3 3.4 1.6 0.8 1.2 2.8 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.1

5.0 5.4 2.6 4.2 3.7 2.4 3.7 6.3 2.4 2.2 1.6 3.5 1.7 1.0 1.0 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2

7.9 5.8 4.8 5.8 4.5 3.4 4.7 4.2 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.5 1.6 2.7 2.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.0 4.0 3.9 4.7 4.6 3.2 3.4 4.0 2.6 2.2 1.5 2.3 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2

5.6 8.0 3.7 3.9 5.3 7.0 3.2 3.2 2.3 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.5 1.7 1.7 2.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1

7.5 9.9 4.5 4.2 5.7 2.3 3.0 4.9 1.3 2.4 1.4 3.7 3.0 1.9 1.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.6 2.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2

10.6

Chevrolet Mercedes Hyundai

6.8 1.9 5.6 6.9 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.7 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.6 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.1

10.3

Subaru

10.1

13.9

BMW Lexus Acura

Volkswagen

Audi

Infiniti

Kia

GMC

Mazda

Chrysler

Dodge

Ram

Cadillac

Land Rover

Lincoln

Volvo Buick

Porsche

Mitsubishi

MINI FIAT

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD ‘15 thru October

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD ‘15 thru October

Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Honda Accord

Nissan Altima Nissan Rogue Honda CRV Honda Accord

8,302

18,784

7,658

17,818

7,348

17,235

Mercedes GLE/M-Class Toyota Highlander In niti G Ford E-Series Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Nissan Maxima Mercedes E-Class BMW 5-Series Volkswagen Jetta Nissan Sentra Toyota Sienna Mercedes C-Class Toyota RAV4 Honda Pilot BMW 3-Series Jeep Grand Cherokee Hyundai Sonata Toyota Corolla Honda CRV Nissan Rogue Honda Civic

5,740

13,475

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET December 2015 Issue PG: 8 0 Mercedes C-Class Ram Nissan Sentra Honda Odyssey Ford Explorer Toyota Highlander Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Hyundai Elantra Toyota Corolla Lexus RX Toyota Sienna JeepWrangler Subaru Forester Jeep Cherokee Honda Pilot Hyundai Sonata Toyota Camry Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee Honda Civic

5,101

13,259

4,990

13,085

The top 8 sellers in the used vehicle market were import brand models.

4,290

12,451

3,727 3,674 3,664

12,344

8,165

8,047

7,720

3,581

3,459 3,336

7,011

Accord, Honda CRV, and Rogue were the top sellers in the new vehicle market.

6,655 6,631 6,404 6,379

2,807 2,724

2,708 2,652

6,335 6,312 6,299 6,280

2,651 2,622

2,446 2,434

5,977

2,342 2,278 2,268 2,176

5,522 5,491 5,491 5,470

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000 10,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer)

New retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. November 2015 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (November) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, December 2015

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com