GNYADA November 2016 NY Auto Outlook
Data Through September 2016
NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york
SEPTEMBER VEHICLE SALES REPORT
metro area new retail car and light truck registrations
September September
%
August
July 2016
YTD '16 Thru Sept
YTD '15 Thru Sept
%
2016
2015 Change
2016
Change
Industry Total
49,758 50,064 -0.6%
59,521 51,152
460,602 442,224 4.2%
Cars
19,260 21,370 -9.9%
23,468 36,053
20,412 30,740
183,832 276,770
195,427 246,797
-5.9% 12.1%
Light Trucks
30,498 28,694
6.3%
Detroit Three
13,874 13,406
3.5% -3.5%
16,123 10,001 29,143
13,774
128,640 75,456 225,199 31,307
120,142 72,441 220,750 28,891
7.1% 4.2% 2.0% 8.4%
European Japanese
7,904
8,188
8,151
24,532 25,232 -2.8%
25,243
Korean
3,448
3,238
6.5%
4,254
3,984
Data Source: IHS Markit
QUICK FACTS
5. SUV market share reached 50.6% thru September of this year, up 3.6 points versus a year earlier. 6. Combined hybrid/electric vehicle market share exceeded year-ago levels in September of this year. 7. Ram , Dodge , Chevrolet , Audi , Hyundai , Mazda , Kia , Jeep , Nissan , and Honda registrations were up by more than 5% so far this year. Historical figures were revised by IHS Automotive and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases.
1. Metro area new vehicle market declined by less than 1% in September of 2016 versus a year earlier. 2. Metro area market was up 4.2% during the first nine months of this year. The U.S. retail market was down slightly during the same period. 3. Metro area new retail registrations for all of this year are predicted to exceed 600,000 units and increase by 2.8% from 2015. 4. Metro area used vehicle market increased 1.4% during the first nine months of this year.
The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.
RECENT RESULTS IN NEW AND USED VEHICLE MARKETS
Percent Change in New Retail Registrations
% Change YTD '16 Through September vs YTD 15
% Change September '16 vs September '15
PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% -0.6%
12% 16% 20%
Metro NYC new vehicles
Metro NYC new vehicles
U.S. new vehicles
U.S. new vehicles
0% 4% 8%
1.6%
4.2%
-0.6%
-8% -4%
-20% -16% -12%
Data Source: IHS Markit.
NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST
New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast
Metro area registrations are predicted to exceed 600,000 units this year
603,500
586,981
553,884
531,573
501,070
452,076
449,172
450,850
432,032
384,763
Data Source: IHS Markit.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016 Forecast
Factors boosting new vehicle sales • Low interest rates
Factors holding sales back • Pent up demand is waning • Trade-in values are expected to soften
Primary factors impacting the metro area new vehicle market:
• Attractive incentive offers • Growth in personal income • New products • Low gasoline prices
Uncertainty for the market: It’s too early to tell how the outcome of the Presidential election will impact new vehicle sales. Some proposed policies could stimulate sales, while others could hold the market back. The potential impact will become clearer when there is specific information on new taxation initiatives, infrastructure spending, and trade policy.
NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS
PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue
Domestic Brand Market Share Increases Slightly in 2016
Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through September
YTD '15 Through September YTD '16 Through September
50%
48.9% 49.9%
40%
30%
27.9% 27.2%
20%
Market Share
16.4% 16.4%
10%
6.8% 6.5%
0%
Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit. Data Source: IHS Markit.
Japanese
Domestic
European
Korean
Passenger Cars Account for Less Than 40% of Metro Area Market
Market Share - YTD 2016 and YTD 2015 Through September
YTD '15 Through September YTD '16 Through September
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
50.6%
47.0%
44.2%
39.9%
Market Share
9.5%
8.8%
SUVs
Passenger Cars
Pickups/Vans
Hybrid/Electric Vehicle Market Share Moves Higher in September of This Year
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share - 2014, 2015, and 2016 Through September
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
2016 2015 2014
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NEWVEHICLE BRANDS
BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations
September
July ‘16Through September ‘16
YTDThrough September
2016
2015 % change
Current
Yr Earlier % change
2016
2015 % change
PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other
49,758 50,064 -0.6% 160,431 161,748 -0.8% 460,602 442,224 4.2%
19,260
21,370 -9.9%
63,140 70,541 -10.5% 183,832 195,427 -5.9%
30,498
28,694
6.3%
97,291 91,207
6.7%
276,770 246,797 12.1%
13,874
13,406
3.5%
43,771 43,616
0.4%
128,640 120,142 7.1%
7,904
8,188
-3.5%
26,056 25,743
1.2%
75,456 72,441 4.2%
24,532
25,232 -2.8%
78,918 81,455
-3.1%
225,199 220,750 2.0%
3,448
3,238
6.5%
11,686 10,934
6.9%
31,307 28,891 8.4%
1,100 1,131 1,736
1,199 1,140 1,923
-8.3% -0.8% -9.7% 30.0% 14.0% 14.4% -29.0%
3,713 3,837 5,795 1,146 1,551 8,740 1,172 2,838
3,812 3,433 6,207 1,544 8,176 2,057 2,194 990
-2.6% 11.8% -6.6% 15.8%
10,869 11,196 -2.9%
10,448
9,310 12.2%
18,088 18,067 0.1%
351 521
270 457
3,235 4,363
2,593 24.8% 4,113 6.1%
0.5% 6.9%
2,746
2,401
25,051 22,103 13.3%
402 664 100
566 720 116
-43.0% 29.4%
5,216 7,500
6,535 -20.2% 6,234 20.3%
-7.8%
-13.8%
319
313
1.9%
875
891
-1.8%
3,097
3,473 -10.8%
9,324 2,698
10,647 -12.4%
28,459 28,958 -1.7%
856
780
9.7% -1.8% 5.1% 2.9%
2,822
-4.4% -0.1% 8.5%
8,384
8,192 2.3%
6,615 2,439 1,041
6,734 2,320 1,012
22,019 22,046
63,070 59,656 5.7% 21,930 20,202 8.6%
8,388 2,852
7,728 3,290
-13.3% 185.5% 0.3% 0.9% 6.8% -9.3% 13.2%
8,665 1,082
9,258 -6.4%
133
48
177.1% -1.1% 4.7% -4.0% -2.7% 5.5% -7.8% 5.8% 10.8% -10.3% -2.5% 5.8% 48.7% -0.3% 283.6%
491
172
593
82.5%
3,606
3,645
11,734 11,701
34,021 31,782 7.0%
961 430
918 448
3,236 1,348 5,785 1,345 3,237 7,459
3,206 1,262 6,380 1,188 3,086 7,410
9,315 4,253
8,689 7.2% 3,777 12.6%
1,735
1,784
16,231 16,635 -2.4%
403 886
382 961
3,821 8,606
3,297 15.9% 8,010 7.4%
4.9% 0.7% 7.4% -4.5% -4.2%
2,605
2,462
21,187 21,285 -0.5%
174 227
157 253
653 714
608 748
1,967 2,246
1,790 9.9% 2,146 4.7%
5,236
5,372
16,161 16,862
47,297 44,661 5.9%
220 946
208 636
683
862
-20.8% 25.2%
2,142 7,409
2,233 -4.1% 5,692 30.2%
2,641 7,292
2,110 6,969
2,392
2,398
4.6%
19,877 19,327 2.8%
280
73
565
168
236.3% -6.1% -8.6% 29.8%
1,137
589
93.0%
5,298
5,515
-3.9%
17,136 18,248
48,316 49,829 -3.0%
869 347 211
1,210 -28.2%
3,502 1,497
3,833 1,153
9,866 4,227 1,449
9,961 -1.0% 3,093 36.7% 1,527 -5.1%
346 137
0.3%
54.0%
560
523
7.1%
Top ten ranked brands are shaded.
Data Source: IHS Markit.
PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue
NEWVEHICLE BRANDS
Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 Through September vs. YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands
Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 Through September Top 20 Selling Brands
13.7
Ram
30.2
Honda
10.0
U.S. Area
10.5
Dodge
20.3
Toyota
13.2
10.3
13.3
Chevrolet
Nissan
7.4
7.4
12.2
Audi
Jeep
5.4
Ram, Dodge, Chevrolet and Audi registrations increased by more than 12%.
6.2
Hyundai
8.6
Ford
12.2
5.4
Mazda
7.4
Chevrolet
11.1
4.8
7.2
Kia
Hyundai
3.9
Toyota market share in the metro area was 10.5% versus 13.2% in the nation.
4.6
Jeep
7.0
Mercedes
2.2
4.3
5.9
Nissan
Subaru
4.0 3.9
5.7
Honda
BMW
2.1
3.5
2.8
Subaru
Lexus
2.1
2.4
2.3
Acura
GMC
1.1
2.3
0.1
Audi
BMW
1.3
2.1
-0.5
Volkswagen
Mercedes
1.9
2.0
Kia
-1.0
Volkswagen
3.8
1.9
In niti
-1.7
Ford
0.8
1.9 1.9
-2.4
Mazda
Lexus
1.8
GMC
-2.9
Acura
3.3
1.6
Dodge
-3.0
Toyota
2.3
1.6
Ram
In niti
-6.4
2.8
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Market Share
Change in new retail light vehicle registrations
Data Source: IHS Markit.
Data Source: IHS Markit.
USED VEHICLE REPORT
METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS September July‘16 – September‘16 YTDThrough September 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2016 2015 % change
53,917 53,671 0.5% 178,251 168,844 5.6% 530,656 523,479 1.4 %
INDUSTRY TOTAL
Cars
29,000 29,336 -1.1% 96,907 94,033 3.1% 289,860 289,914 0.0%
PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue Registrations -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 15.4 Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles
24,917 24,335 2.4% 81,344 74,811 8.7% 240,796 233,565 3.1%
17,998 18,777 -4.1% 59,903 58,854 1.8% 181,212 184,075 -1.6%
8,250 8,081 2.1% 27,266 25,647 6.3% 81,946 80,642 1.6%
25,101 24,347 3.1% 82,531 76,652 7.7% 242,475 235,512 3.0%
2,568 2,466 4.1% 8,551 7,691 11.2% 25,023 23,250 7.6%
1-year-old vehicles or newer
5,542 4,635 19.6% 16,558 12,640 31.0% 39,600 34,301 15.4%
4,500 4,990 -9.8% 14,031 13,691 2.5% 37,039 38,684 -4.3%
5,699 4,842 17.7% 20,329 15,165 34.1% 60,641 53,765 12.8%
2,224 2,268 -1.9% 7,607 7,152 6.4% 26,596 26,595 0.0%
2,044 1,983 3.1% 6,662 6,302 5.7% 20,470 19,846 3.1%
6-year-old vehicles or older
33,908 34,953 -3.0% 113,064 113,894 -0.7% 346,310 350,288 -1.1%
Data Source: IHS Markit.
Percent Change in Used Registrations by Vehicle Age YTD 2016 Through September vs YTD 2015
Registrations for three-year-old vehicles increased by 12.8% so far this year.
12.8
0.0
3.1
-4.3
-1.1
1-year-old or newer vehicles
2-year-old vehicles
3-year-old vehicles
4-year-old vehicles
5-year-old vehicles
6-year-old vehicles
COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)
PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook November 2016 Issue
COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations
Used Retail Registrations
July ‘16 July ‘15 Through Through %
YTD 2016
YTD 2015
July ’16 July ‘15 Through Through %
YTD 2016
YTD 2015
%
%
Sep ’16 Sep ‘15 Change Through Sep Through Sep Change
Sep ’16 Sep ‘15 Change Through Sep Through Sep change
Bronx
6,585 6,502
1% 18,908
18,062 41,843 13,080
5% 6% 0% 6% 2% 2% 3% 6% 9% 4% 3%
12,647 11,428 11% 39,170 17,356 16,398 6% 52,815
38,161 51,732
3% 2%
Brooklyn Dutchess
14,755 15,197 -3% 44,472 4,787 4,861 -2% 13,116 7,173 7,323 -2% 20,479 31,494 31,191 1% 90,169 5,963 6,387 -7% 17,248
8,293 6,951
8,410 -1% 24,396
25,106 -3% 21,342 -3%
Manhattan
20,754 -1%
6,628
5% 20,707
Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland
85,371 16,958
23,868 21,746 10% 69,875 10,540 10,899 -3% 31,291
67,111
4%
32,853 -5%
2,147 2,169 -1%
5,895
5,792
2,776
2,619
6%
7,815
7,723
1% 0% 5% 2%
21,079 21,631 -3% 60,204
58,456 17,096 28,832 82,668 53,312
25,368 24,314 4% 76,663
76,367 17,311 19,711
6,235 6,256
0% 18,195
6,135 6,572
5,674
8% 18,233
Staten Island
10,366 11,219 -8% 31,498 30,398 29,404 3% 85,745 19,449 19,608 -1% 54,673
6,624 -1% 20,054
Suffolk
39,489 36,655 8% 116,806 18,256 17,449 5% 52,831
113,720 3%
Westchester
52,342
1%
TOTALS
160,431 161,748 -1% 460,602 442,224 4% 178,251 168,844 6% 530,656 523,479 1%
Data Source: IHS Markit.
Top three are shaded.
new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2016 Through September
Brand
Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester
Honda Toyota Nissan
19.6 15.2 11.9
16.3 13.3 12.6
13.8 10.0
10.3
12.1
12.2 12.9
13.6
17.0 13.0 13.6
12.8 12.9 11.6
11.9
11.6
14.8
9.2 5.4 5.7 4.6 2.5 3.1 3.8 8.3 4.3 2.2 5.9 2.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.4 3.3 2.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.9 1.4 1.1
8.6
8.9 5.9 8.6 7.1 7.6 4.5 2.5 2.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.7 0.6 1.7 3.4 1.9 2.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1
8.5
9.9 9.3 8.7 7.9 8.8 5.4 3.6 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.6 2.3 1.3 2.2 2.0 1.6 2.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2
8.3 6.7 7.6 5.4 4.8 3.5 5.5 7.3 5.1 4.0 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.5
7.9 6.3 8.1 9.4 4.7 2.3 2.6 0.9 2.9 1.1 2.0 2.7 0.4 2.6 2.5 1.7 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.1
10.2
9.4 7.1
13.3
Jeep Ford
6.0 5.7 4.4 7.4 2.9 2.6 2.0 2.1 3.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.0
5.4 5.3 2.9 3.8 3.7 2.5 3.8 5.6 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.9 3.0 1.2 0.9 2.0 0.6 2.7 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2
8.1 5.3 5.2 4.4 5.8 3.6 4.7 3.8 2.4 2.7 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.6 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3
6.7 4.1 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.2 3.5 4.0 2.6 1.7 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.6 1.0 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1
6.3 7.3 4.1 5.2 3.8 6.0 3.1 3.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 2.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 2.2 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1
8.4 8.1 4.2 6.0 3.5 2.4 2.9 4.5 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.4 3.4 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
10.3
Chevrolet Hyundai Mercedes
7.7 5.6 2.0 6.3 2.2 1.2 1.7 0.8 1.4 2.7 0.5 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1
10.8
Subaru
10.0
13.2
BMW Lexus Acura
Audi
Volkswagen
Kia
Infiniti Mazda
GMC
Dodge
Ram
Chrysler Cadillac
Land Rover
Volvo
Lincoln
Buick
Mitsubishi
Porsche
MINI Tesla
Data Source: IHS Markit.
The top three counties for each brand are shaded.
MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)
New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2016 Through September
Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2016 Through September
BMW 3-Series Nissan Rogue Honda CRV Honda Civic Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Honda Accord
Toyota RAV4 Honda Civic Honda Accord Honda CRV Nissan Rogue
18,505
7,653
7,384
16,922
7,120
16,628
5,661
13,614
4,991
12,679
new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET November 2016 Issue PG: 8 0 Ford Fusion Chevrolet Equinox Ford Escape Lexus RX Toyota Corolla Honda Odyssey Toyota Sienna Ford Explorer Honda Pilot Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Subaru Forester Toyota Highlander Jeep Cherokee Hyundai Sonata Ram Nissan Sentra Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Jeep Grand Cherokee 4,449
4,908
12,394
4,211
10,212
Honda Accord was the top-seller in the six-year-old or newer used vehicle market.
Mercedes C-Class Hyundai Sonata Toyota Corolla Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee
4,082
8,606
Two Compact SUVs (Rogue and CRV) were top-sellers in the new vehicle market.
3,884
6,974
3,753
6,644 6,560 6,464
3,621
3,290
Nissan Sentra Toyota Sienna BMW 5-Series
3,094 3,083
6,446 6,430 6,409
2,966 2,965
Toyota Highlander Volkswagen Jetta Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Mercedes E-Class Honda Pilot
6,027 5,917
2,782
2,420
5,780 5,771 5,617
2,375 2,372
2,219 2,118 2,076
5,499 5,397 5,365
Ford Fusion Ford Escape Ford F Series Lexus RX
2,028 2,007
4,793
Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
New retail light vehicle registrations
Data Source: IHS Markit.
Data Source: IHS Markit.
HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results.
NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, November 2016
Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Markit.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Markit GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com
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