GNYADA June 2016 NY Auto Outlook

First page Table of contents 1 Next page Last page

Data Thru May 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

MAY VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

May Estimate*

April Actual

YTD Through May*

2016 2015 % chg.

Industry Total

48,365 50,911 -5.0% 47,902 48,419 -1.1% 239,528 229,130 4.5%

Cars

19,990 23,567 -15.2% 19,469 21,956 -11.3% 96,785 101,909 -5.0% 28,375 27,344 3.8% 28,433 26,463 7.4% 142,743 127,221 12.2%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * May 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

12,814 13,535 -5.3% 13,064 13,391 -2.4% 67,941 62,080 9.4% 8,058 8,570 -6.0% 7,507 8,221 -8.7% 37,643 37,760 -0.3% 23,939 25,487 -6.1% 24,026 23,476 2.3% 118,043 114,615 3.0% 3,554 3,319 7.1% 3,305 3,331 -0.8% 15,901 14,675 8.4%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NOTE: As reported in the May release of Auto Outlook, it was unlikely that the metro area new vehicle market would be able to maintain the big increases posted in the beginning of this year. And that was indeed the case. However, because the first quarter of 2016 was so strong, the market still has a good chance to improve for all of this year versus 2015, although it could be a struggle for sales to improve significantly on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year.

1. Metro area market was up 4.5% during the first five months of this year versus the U.S. retail market, which declined by less than 1% during the same period. 2. Domestic cars gained a 1.3%market share while European and Japanese car makers were down 1.5% combined. 3. Hybrid and diesel powered vehicles continue to lose ground. Gasoline powered vehicles now account for more than 97% of metro area market . 4. SUV share of area market improved by 2.6 points , while passenger car market share declined by more than four points. 5. Metro area used vehicle market increased 3.4% during the first four months of this year.

months 5

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF APRIL RESULTS

Percent Change in Area Registrations April 2016 vs. April 2015

April ‘16 new retail light vehicle registrations in the metro area declined a slim 1.1% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected a 2% increase. Actual total for April was 47,902 versus the projection of 49,387. Auto Outlook is predicting that registrations in May of this year declined 5% versus a year earlier. We will report on May registrations in the July release.

-1.1%

-1%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET June 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

-2%

-3%

Auto Outlook projected change

Actual change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2015 and 2016*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

The metro area market increased 4.5% during the rst ve months of 2016, while the national market declined slightly.

Metro NY U.S.

2016 2015

4.5

-8% -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1%

-1.1

-0.4

-3.1

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Monthly registrations declined by an estimated 5% in May of 2016.

-5.0

-6.1

Change May '16* vs May '15

Change April '16 vs April '15

Change YTD '16 Thru May* vs YTD '15

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for May 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are predicted to approach 610,000 units this year.

609,500

586,981

553,884

531,573

501,070

450,850

449,172

452,076

432,032

384,763

Data Source: IHS Automotive

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Forecast

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook June 2016 Issue

Detroit three gain market share

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru May*

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru May* vs. YTD 2015

Korean 6.6%

Detroit Three

1.3

European 15.7%

Korean

0.2

Japanese 49.3%

European

-0.7

Detroit Three 28.4%

Japanese

-0.8

0.6

1.2

0.0

-0.6

*Figures for May 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for May 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Passenger car market share declines by more than four points

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru May*

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru May* vs. YTD 2015

Pickups/Vans 10.2%

SUVs

2.6

Pickups/Vans

1.5

Passenger Cars 40.4%

Passenger Cars

-4.1

SUVs 49.4%

0.0

2.0

-2.0

-4.0

Hybrid and diesel powered vehicles lose ground

Market Share - YTD 2016 thru April

Change in share: YTD 2016 thru April vs. YTD 2015

Diesel 0.7%

Electric 0.2%

Hybrid 1.8%

Gasoline

0.7

Electric

0.0

Diesel

-0.3

Gasoline 97.3%

Hybrid

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

-0.4

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

May Estimate*

Three Month Period (Mar ‘16 –May‘16*)

YTD—May*

2016

2015 % change

Current Yr Earlier

% change

2016

2015 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET June 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

48,365 50,911 -5.0% 149,137 154,580 -3.5% 239,528 229,130 4.5%

19,990 23,567

-15.2%

61,819 70,048

-11.7%

96,785 101,909 -5.0%

28,375 27,344

3.8%

87,318 84,532

3.3%

142,743 127,221 12.2%

12,814 13,535

-5.3%

39,921 41,430

-3.6%

67,941 62,080 9.4%

8,058

8,570

-6.0%

24,362 26,571

-8.3%

37,643 37,760 -0.3%

23,939 25,487

-6.1%

74,536 76,347

-2.4%

118,043 114,615 3.0%

3,554

3,319

7.1%

10,318 10,232

0.8%

15,901 14,675 8.4%

1,143 1,131 1,929

1,451 1,124 2,080

-21.2%

4,047 3,406 5,964 1,139 7,296 1,935 2,061 840

4,043 3,413 6,689 1,334 7,796 2,360 2,190 871

0.1% -0.2%

6,074 4,796 9,354 1,546 2,042

6,154 -1.3%

0.6% -7.3%

4,705

1.9%

-10.8%

9,501 -1.5% 1,272 21.5% 2,073 -1.5%

212 317

275 381

-22.9% -16.8% -19.4% -19.3%

-3.6%

-14.6%

2,150

2,666

-6.4%

12,933 11,204 15.4%

590 637

731 680 100

-18.0%

3,813 3,323

3,736 3,209

2.1% 3.6%

-6.3%

-5.9%

-19.0%

252

329

-23.4%

410

476

-13.9%

2,983

3,226

-7.5%

9,552 10,043

-4.9%

15,582 15,081 3.3%

757

893

-15.2% -3.8% 10.6% 78.3% 12.6% -0.1% -9.1% -10.9% 2.4% -22.0% -6.9% -2.3% 6.0% -0.9% 0.1% 21.3% -10.4% -18.0% 5.8% -5.3% -1.6%

2,439

2,713

-10.1%

4,485

4,412

1.7%

7,181 2,472

7,467 2,236

21,933 20,932

4.8% 0.5%

33,173 31,116 6.6% 10,827 10,199 6.2%

7,139 2,946

7,106 3,297

937 107

915

-10.6% 12.6%

4,987

4,891

2.0%

260

231

392

339

15.6%

4,093 1,082

3,636 1,083

10,935 10,795

1.3% 1.7% -0.9% -8.3% 9.3% -9.9%

18,082 16,120 12.2%

3,179 1,375 5,283 1,263 2,501 6,645

3,126 1,387 5,759 1,156 2,776 7,909

5,074 2,341 8,378 2,101 4,093

4,476 13.4% 2,108 11.1% 8,531 -1.8% 1,748 20.2%

379

417

1,549

1,739

436 864

412 912

4,046

1.2%

2,271

2,308

-16.0% 0.9% 3.8% 2.1% -4.9% 13.5% -7.2% 16.9% -9.0% -4.5% 15.0% -23.1%

10,287 11,267 -8.7%

198 243

254 261

645 813

639 783

935

864

8.2%

1,337

1,142 17.1%

4,505

4,609

15,017 14,710

24,581 22,775 7.9%

298 548

281 553

817

859

1,197 3,621

1,140

5.0%

2,138 6,271

1,883 6,756

2,876 25.9%

2,203

2,201

10,431 10,202 2.2%

318

272

395

319

23.8%

5,314 1,182

5,929 1,442

15,720 17,281

24,981 25,745 -3.0%

3,328 1,224

3,485 1,064

5,251 2,016

5,041

4.2%

336 146

308 206

9.1%

1,535 31.3%

-29.1%

456

593

690

827

-16.6%

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive * May 16 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook June 2016 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 thru May* vs. YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 thru May* Top 20 Selling Brands

13.8

Ram

25.9

Honda

U.S. Area

10.0

10.4

Chevrolet

15.4

Toyota

13.1

10.3

13.4

Kia

Nissan

7.6

7.5

12.2

Jeep

5.4

Ram, Chevrolet, Kia, Jeep, Nissan, Honda, and Hyundai had the largest percentage increases.

6.5

Nissan

7.9

Ford

12.4

5.4

Honda

6.6

Chevrolet

10.9

4.5

6.2

Hyundai

4.0

Honda market share in the metro area was 13.8% versus 10% in the nation.

4.4

Volkswagen

4.2

Subaru

3.9

4.3

3.3

Ford

Mercedes

2.2

3.9

2.2

Subaru

BMW

2.1

3.5

2.1

Chrysler

Lexus

2.2

2.0

2.5

In niti

Acura

1.1

1.9

2.2

Audi

Volkswagen

1.8

1.7

2.1

GMC

Kia

3.9

2.1

1.2

Mazda

In niti

0.8

-1.3

2.0

Acura

Audi

1.2

-1.5

1.9

BMW

GMC

3.3

-1.8

1.7

Lexus

Mazda

1.9

1.6

-3.0

Toyota

Chrysler

1.1

1.5

Mercedes

-8.7

Ram

2.8

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Market Share

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for May ‘16 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS April February‘16 – April‘16 YTDThrough April 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2016 2015 % change

56,564 58,772 -3.8% 182,600 178,963 2.0% 228,375 220,883 3.4 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

31,318 32,786 -4.5% 100,460 98,655 1.8% 124,588 121,326 2.7%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET June 2016 Issue YTD change in new vehicle registrations YTD change in used vehicle registrations Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean

25,246 25,986 -2.8% 82,140 80,308 2.3% 103,787 99,557 4.2%

19,414 20,815 -6.7% 63,204 63,778 -0.9% 79,275 78,984 0.4%

8,788 9,323 -5.7% 27,705 27,031 2.5% 34,868 33,604 3.8%

25,670 26,057 -1.5% 83,162 80,393 3.4% 103,590 98,742 4.9%

2,692 2,577 4.5% 8,529 7,761 9.9% 10,642

9,553 11.4%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

3,656 3,312 10.4% 11,068 9,907 11.7% 13,718 12,289 11.6%

2-year-old vehicles

3,724 3,940 -5.5% 11,292 11,326 -0.3% 14,219 14,022 1.4%

3-year-old vehicles

6,541 6,337 3.2% 20,140 18,548 8.6% 25,324 22,809 11.0%

4-year-old vehicles

2,937 3,009 -2.4% 10,030 10,123 -0.9% 13,214 13,079 1.0%

5-year-old vehicles

2,149 2,214 -2.9% 6,990 6,875 1.7% 9,013

8,576

5.1%

6-year-old vehicles or older

37,557 39,960 -6.0% 123,080 122,184 0.7% 152,887 150,108 1.9%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

YTD thru April Comparison

Used up 3.4%

New up 7.3%

0% 1%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook June 2016 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Feb ‘16 Feb ‘15 Through Through % Apr ’16 Apr ‘15 Change

Feb ’16 Feb ‘15 Through Through % Apr ’16 Apr ‘15 Change

YTD 2016

YTD

YTD 2016

YTD

2015 Change

2015 change

Bronx

6,274 5,885

7,854

7,296

14,243 14,039 1% 17,469 18,336 18,294 0% 22,719

17,022 22,240 10,421

3% 2% 1%

Brooklyn Dutchess

14,810 13,442 10% 18,782

16,622 13%

4,143 4,179 -1% 6,230 6,590 -5%

5,314 7,850

5,181 8,220

8,236 6,773

8,354 -1% 10,535

Manhattan

-5%

7,330 -8%

8,556

9,029

-5%

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

29,508 27,535 7% 37,861

34,737

9% 7% 3% 9% 8%

23,712 22,492 5% 29,878 10,849 11,262 -4% 13,656

28,011

5,665 5,420

7,208 2,355

6,746 2,285

13,796 -1%

1,783 1,793 -1%

2,568

2,458

3,291

3,072

7% 3% 9% 7% 5% 2%

19,671 18,409 7% 25,113

23,097

26,851 26,309 2% 33,279

32,458

5,931 5,511

7,572

7,012

6,267 7,184

5,789 6,673

8% 8%

7,845 8,901

7,210 8,304

Staten Island

10,755 9,256 16% 13,638 27,787 26,939 3% 35,467 17,272 16,762 3% 22,149

11,706 17%

Suffolk

34,030 21,287

4% 4%

39,951 38,458 4% 49,972 17,630 17,505 1% 22,274

47,589 21,731

Westchester

TOTALS

149,829 141,721 6% 191,163 178,219 7% 182,600 178,963 2% 228,375 220,883 3%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, YTD 2016 Through April

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Nissan Toyota

19.9 12.1 15.0

16.4 12.7 12.8

13.7

10.3

12.0 10.6

11.6

12.7

16.9 13.9 12.6

13.3 10.6 13.0

11.9 13.2

11.4

14.6

8.3

5.6 9.0 5.5 5.0 2.8 2.9 3.6 8.6 4.6 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.0 1.1 5.2 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.9 3.8 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.7

9.7

6.3 8.6 8.8 7.6 8.3 3.4 2.4 2.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.5 3.3 4.0 1.6 1.6 0.7 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2

9.6 9.6 8.5 8.3 9.1 5.3 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.4 1.8 2.6 1.5 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.1 0.8 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.1

6.7 8.2 7.5 5.8 5.0 3.1 7.5 5.1 5.3 3.9 4.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.6 1.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.2

10.2

8.3 8.1 5.8 5.5 3.9 3.6 5.4 4.6 3.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.6 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1

12.8

8.8 7.9 8.5 4.2 5.7 2.4 2.9 3.0 4.4 1.5 2.2 3.9 3.6 2.2 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.8 0.3 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2

Jeep Ford

5.6 6.3 4.5 6.3 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.2 3.3 1.5 1.2 3.1 1.1 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.5 1.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.1

5.4 5.5 3.1 3.5 2.3 3.2 3.7 5.7 2.3 1.7 3.5 1.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 5.0 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1

6.1 8.5 9.2 4.1 2.0 2.2 1.0 2.8 1.9 0.3 2.7 2.8 1.0 2.9 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0

7.3

7.1 4.3 4.4 4.3 3.3 4.3 3.4 4.2 2.8 2.0 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2

5.7 7.8 4.2 4.9 6.4 3.5 3.1 3.3 2.2 1.3 1.5 2.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 4.3 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1

11.0

Chevrolet Hyundai

7.5 5.4 6.0 1.9 2.0 1.2 2.0 1.2 0.5 2.8 2.0 0.8 1.3 2.4 2.8 2.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.4 0.1

Subaru

10.4

13.9

Mercedes

10.1

BMW Lexus Acura

Volkswagen

Infiniti

Kia

GMC Audi

Mazda

Chrysler

Ram

Dodge

Land Rover

Cadillac

Volvo

Lincoln

Buick

Mitsubishi

Porsche

MINI FIAT

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - YTD 2016 thru April

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - YTD 2016 thru April

Honda Civic Honda CRV Honda Accord Nissan Rogue

Nissan Altima Toyota Camry Honda Accord

7,446

3,064

7,085

2,949

6,402

2,873

Hyundai Sonata Hyundai Sonata Jeep Grand Cherokee BMW 3-Series Honda CRV Nissan Rogue Honda Civic

5,779

2,252

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET June 2016 Issue PG: 8 Lexus RX Ford Escape Toyota Corolla Ford Fusion Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Sienna JeepWrangler Honda Pilot Subaru Forester Chrysler Town & Country Ford Explorer Honda Odyssey Ram Toyota Highlander Hyundai Sonata Jeep Cherokee Nissan Sentra Toyota Camry Nissan Altima Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee

4,999

1,998

4,807

1,940

4,411

1,850

Honda Accord was the best-selling used vehicle so far this year. (Only includes vehicles 6 years old or newer.)

3,557

1,662 1,653

Nissan Rogue retained it’s top position in the metro area new vehicle market.

3,108

3,047

1,550

Toyota Sienna Nissan Sentra BMW 5 Series Honda Pilot Mercedes C-Class Toyota RAV4

2,890 2,756 2,752 2,689 2,687

1,520

1,296 1,287 1,257

1,228 1,187

2,677 2,655

Mercedes GLE/M-Class Ford F Series Lexus RX Nissan Maxima Toyota Highlander Hyundai Elantra JeepWrangler Volkswagen Jetta Mercedes-Benz E-Class

1,080

2,542 2,481 2,430

1,030

1,014 990 977

2,297 2,292

940 937

2,274 2,219 2,203

901

831

New retail light vehicle registrations 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. May 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (May) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, June 2016

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com

Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8

Made with FlippingBook - Online Brochure Maker