GNYADA March 2016 NY Auto Outlook

Data Thru February 2016

NEWYORK AUTOOUTLOOK tm a monthly report on vehicle sales in metro new york

FEBRUARY VEHICLE SALES REPORT

metro area new retail car and light truck registrations

February Estimate*

January Actual

YTD Through Feb*

2016 2015 % chg.

2016 2015 % chg.

2016 2015 % chg.

Industry Total

39,574 38,052 4.0% 37,482 36,498 2.7% 77,056 74,550 3.4%

Cars

15,296 15,907 -3.8% 14,632 15,954 -8.3% 29,928 31,861 -6.1% 24,278 22,145 9.6% 22,850 20,544 11.2% 47,128 42,689 10.4%

This table shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area. Figures exclude fleet transactions. * February 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Light Trucks

Detroit Three

11,223 10,407 7.8% 11,715 10,243 14.4% 22,938 20,650 11.1% 5,360 5,472 -2.0% 5,506 5,717 -3.7% 10,866 11,189 -2.9% 20,655 19,917 3.7% 18,017 18,351 -1.8% 38,672 38,268 1.1% 2,336 2,256 3.5% 2,244 2,187 2.6% 4,580 4,443 3.1%

European Japanese

Korean

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NOTE: New vehicle sales in the metro area surpassed expectations in January of this year. Despite a big snowstorm at the end of the month, the market was able to post a small improvement versus a year earlier. And it appears as though the market moved higher in February as well. Year- to-date, new retail registrations were up 3.4% during the first two months of 2016 compared to strong prior-year results. Note: Historical registration data was recently updated by IHS Automotive. For this reason, past figures will differ slightly from those presented in previous releases.

1. Metro area new vehicle market increased an estimated 4% in February of 2016 versus a year earlier. The February increase followed a 2.7% improvement in January. 2. Metro area market was up 3.4% during the first two months of this year, slightly below the 6.3% improvement in the nation. 3. Passenger car market share was just 38.8% thru February of this year, down 3.9 points versus a year earlier. 4. Ram , Chevrolet , Jeep , Kia , and Nissan registrations months 2

are up by more than 10% so far this year. 5. Metro area used vehicle market increased 9.2% in January.

The Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association (GNYADA) represents more than 400 franchised new car dealerships in downstate New York with combined annual sales totaling over $33 billion. GNYADAmembers are responsible for more than 65,000 jobs in the area and collect over $1.8 billion in state and local taxes annually.

RECAP OF JANUARY RESULTS

12% 15%

January ‘16 new retail light vehicle registrations in the metro area were up 2.7% compared to a year earlier. Auto Outlook had projected a 2% decline. The late January snowstorm had less of an impact on sales than anticipated. Auto Outlook is predicting that sales in February of this year improved 4% versus a year earlier. We will report on the accuracy of that projection in the April, 2016 release. Percent Change in Area Registrations January 2016 vs. January 2015

0% 3% 6% 9%

2.7%

-2.0%

-9% -6% -3%

PG: 2 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET March 2016 Issue 2007 Registrations 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 New vehicle registrations 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr Mar Feb Jan

-15% -12%

Auto Outlook projected % change

Actual % change

RECENT RESULTS IN NEWVEHICLE MARKET

Monthly New Retail Light Vehicle Sales 2015 and 2016*

Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Sales

8%

The metro area market increased 3.4% during the rst two months of 2016, slightly below the nation.

2016 2015

Metro NY U.S.

7%

6%

6.8

6.3

5%

5.8

4%

4.0

3%

3.4

Monthly registrations were up an estimated 4% in February of 2016.

2%

2.7

1%

0%

% Change Feb '16* vs Feb '15

%Change Jan '16 vs Jan '15

% Change YTD '16 Thru Feb* vs YTD '15

Jul

Oct

Jun

Dec

Sep

Nov

Aug

May

* Figures for February 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE MARKET FORECAST

New York Metro Area Annual New Retail Registrations History and Forecast

Metro area registrations are predicted to approach 600,000 units this year.

598,000

586,981

553,884

531,573

501,070

450,850

449,172

452,076

432,032

384,763

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016 Forecast

Data Source: IHS Automotive

NEWVEHICLE SEGMENTS

PG: 3 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook March 2016 Issue

Japanese Brands Lose Market Share

Market Share - YTD 2016 Through February*

Change in share: YTD 2016 Through February* vs YTD 2015

Korean 5.9%

Detroit Three

2.1

European 14.1%

Korean

-0.1

Japanese 50.2%

European

-0.9

Detroit Three 29.8%

Japanese

-1.1

0.0

2.0

1.0

-1.0

*Figures for February 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. Data Source: IHS Automotive. *Figures for February 2016 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

Metro Area SUV Market Share Exceeds 50% in early 2016

Market Share - YTD 2016 Through February*

Change in share: YTD 2016 Through February* vs YTD 2015

Pickups/Vans 10.5%

SUVs

2.1

Pickups/Vans

1.8

Passenger Cars 38.8%

Passenger Cars

-3.9

SUVs 50.7%

2.0

1.0

0.0

-2.0

-1.0

-3.0

-4.0

Hybrid Vehicles Lose Ground

Market Share - January 2016

Change in share: January 2016 vs January 2015

Diesel 0.7%

Electric 0.1%

Hybrid 1.8%

Gasoline

0.8

Electric

0.0

Diesel

-0.2

Gasoline 97.4%

Hybrid

-0.6

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.0

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

BRAND REGISTRATIONS REPORT Metro Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations

February Estimate*

Three Month Period (Dec ‘15 – Feb ‘16*)

YTD—Feb*

2016

2015 % change

Current Yr Earlier

% change

2016

2015 % change

PG: 4 new york auto outlook : NEW VEHICLE MARKET March 2016 Issue TOTAL Cars Light Trucks Domestic Brands European Brands Japanese Brands Korean Brands Acura Audi BMW Buick Cadillac Chevrolet Chrysler Dodge FIAT Ford GMC Honda Hyundai Infiniti Jaguar Jeep Kia Land Rover Lexus Lincoln Mazda Mercedes MINI Mitsubishi Nissan Porsche Ram Subaru Tesla Toyota Volkswagen Volvo Other

39,574 38,052

4.0% 126,016 124,048 1.6%

77,056 74,550 3.4

15,296 15,907

-3.8%

50,276 54,952

-8.5%

29,928 31,861 -6.1%

24,278 22,145

9.6%

75,740 69,096

9.6%

47,128 42,689 10.4%

11,223 10,407

7.8%

35,507 32,885

8.0%

22,938 20,650 11.1%

5,360

5,472

-2.0%

20,746 22,610

-8.2%

10,866 11,189 -2.9%

20,655 19,917

3.7%

62,543 61,653

1.4%

38,672 38,268 1.1%

2,336

2,256

3.5%

7,220

6,900

4.6%

4,580

4,443

3.1%

1,099

1,148

-4.3% -0.5%

3,143 2,503 5,062 1,333 6,291 1,876 1,594 847

3,311 2,556 6,273 1,229 5,531 2,255 1,628 713

-5.1% -2.1%

1,893 1,156 2,541

2,111 -10.3% 1,292 -10.5% 2,812 -9.6%

638

641

1,146

1,318

-13.1%

-19.3% 18.8%

220 348

221 355

-0.5% -2.0% -3.3%

535 744

401 739

33.4%

8.5%

0.7%

1,629

1,685

13.7% -16.8%

4,042 1,378 1,061

3,408 18.6%

464 563

646 516

-28.2%

1,376 1,019

0.1% 4.1% 2.0% 5.2%

9.1%

-2.1% -3.0% 8.8% -7.8% 6.2% -1.4% -1.2%

68

77

-11.7% 16.7% -9.4% 11.8% -1.7% -13.4%

229

236

150

147

2,907

2,491

8,430 2,537

7,747 2,752

5,298 1,627

5,038

824

909

1,699 -4.2%

6,037 1,572

5,399 1,599

17,135 16,138

10,387 10,184 2.0%

4,821 2,610

4,887 2,642

3,033 1,582

3,093 -1.9% 1,594 -0.8%

772

891

50

48

4.2%

150

205

-26.8% 13.1% 17.1% 25.0% -9.5% 24.8% -19.4% -22.5% 22.5% 0.2%

99

108

-8.3%

3,287

2,753

19.4%

9,391 2,357 1,452 4,964 1,178 2,020 5,868

8,305 2,013 1,162 5,487

6,281 1,505

5,325 18.0% 1,350 11.5%

722 497

657 391

9.9%

27.1% -2.2% 27.0% -18.3%

894

721

24.0%

1,374

1,405

2,638

2,772 -4.8%

358 519

282 635

944

720

592

21.6%

2,015 7,279

1,223 2,991

1,270 -3.7% 3,358 -10.9%

1,489

1,534

-2.9%

92

124 201

-25.8%

351 680

453 555

211 430

225 359

-6.2% 19.8%

204

1.5% 9.9% 8.1%

4,966

4,519

13,286 12,389

7.2%

8,934

8,065 10.8%

133 658

123 531

573

501

14.4% 15.8%

322

281 993

14.6% 25.8%

23.9% -1.1% -6.3% -15.5% 27.5% -10.6% 1.9%

1,887 5,653

1,630 5,636

1,249 3,459

1,590

1,607

0.3%

3,446

0.4% 6.4%

15

16

182

123

48.0% -2.5%

50

47

4,190

4,111

13,143 13,475

8,220 1,539

8,464 -2.9% 1,556 -1.1%

730 320

864 251 104

2,874 1,239

2,686

7.0%

891 401

39.1% -11.0%

665 199

471 234

41.2% -15.0%

93

357

Top ten ranked brands are shaded.

Data Source: IHS Automotive * February 16 figures are estimated.

PG: 5 NEW VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook March 2016 Issue

NEWVEHICLE BRANDS

Percent Change in Metro Area Registrations YTD 2016 Through February* vs. YTD 2015 Top 20 Selling Brands

Metro Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market Share YTD 2016 Through February* Top 20 Selling Brands

U.S. Area

13.5

Ram

25.8

Honda

9.5

11.6

Chevrolet

18.6

Nissan

8.0

10.7

18.0

Jeep

Toyota

13.3

8.2

11.5

Kia

Jeep

5.3

6.9

Nissan

10.8

Ford

12.8

5.2

Ford

5.2

Chevrolet

10.9

4.5

2.0

Honda

Subaru

Honda and Nissan metro area market shares were much higher than in the nation.

4.0 3.9

Ram, Chevrolet, Jeep, Kia, and Nissan had the largest percentage increases.

0.4

Subaru

Mercedes

2.1

3.9

0.1

Chrysler

Hyundai

3.7

3.4

-0.8

In niti

Lexus

2.3

3.3

-1.1

Volkswagen

BMW

2.0

2.5

Hyundai

-1.9

Acura

1.1

2.1

Toyota

-2.9

In niti

0.8

2.1

-3.7

Mazda

GMC

3.3

2.0

GMC

-4.2

Volkswagen

1.7

2.0

Lexus

-4.8

Kia

3.8

1.8

-9.6

BMW

Chrysler

1.1

1.6

-10.3

Ram

Acura

3.0

1.6 1.7 1.5

-10.5

Mazda

Audi

Audi

Mercedes

-10.9

1.1

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Market Share

Change in new retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Figures for February ‘16 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

USED VEHICLE REPORT

METRO AREA USED CAR AND LIGHT TRUCK REGISTRATIONS January November‘15 – January‘16 AnnualTotals 2016 2015 % change Current Previous % change 2015 2014 % change

45,775 41,920 9.2% 137,513 141,325 -2.7% 666,939 655,824 1.7 %

INDUSTRY TOTAL

Cars

24,128 22,671 6.4% 73,852 76,886 -3.9% 367,675 364,564 0.9%

PG: 6 new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET March 2016 Issue 0% January change in new vehicle registrations January change in used vehicle registrations Light Trucks Detroit Three European Japanese Korean 2-year-old vehicles 3-year-old vehicles 4-year-old vehicles 5-year-old vehicles

21,647 19,249 12.5% 63,661 64,439 -1.2% 299,264 291,260 2.7%

16,071 15,206 5.7% 48,249 51,684 -6.6% 234,513 239,053 -1.9%

7,163 6,573 9.0% 21,456 21,776 -1.5% 102,840 100,408 2.4%

20,428 18,349 11.3% 61,476 61,711 -0.4% 299,740 287,526 4.2%

2,113 1,792 17.9% 6,332 6,154 2.9% 29,846 28,837 3.5%

1-year-old vehicles or newer

2,650 2,382 11.3% 12,253 13,518 -9.4% 48,617 48,562 0.1%

2,927 2,696 8.6% 11,818 11,942 -1.0% 52,229 47,611 9.7%

5,184 4,261 21.7% 11,937 12,104

-1.4% 64,596 65,944 -2.0%

3,184 2,956 7.7% 7,066 6,853 3.1% 32,599 29,328 11.2%

2,023 1,701 18.9% 5,501 5,093 8.0% 25,194 22,423 12.4%

6-year-old vehicles or older

29,807 27,924 6.7% 88,938 91,815 -3.1% 443,704 441,956 0.4%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

January Comparison

Used up 9.2%

New up 2.7%

4%

8%

2%

6%

10%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

COUNTY MARKETS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

PG: 7 NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET : new york auto outlook March 2016 Issue

COUNTY NEW AND USED MARKETS New Retail Registrations

Used Retail Registrations

Nov ‘15 Nov ‘14 Through Through % Jan ’16 Jan ‘15 Change

Nov ’15 Nov ‘14 Through Through % Jan ’16 Jan ‘15 Change

January

January

%

January

January

%

2016

2015 Change

2016

2015 change

Bronx

5,220 4,634 13% 1,448 13,234 11,786 12% 3,600 3,841 3,431 12% 1,077

1,411 3,180 1,002 1,630 7,202 1,326 4,688 1,501 2,450 7,091 4,525 492

3%

9,430

9,758 -3%

3,226 4,383 2,299 1,783 6,166 2,807 6,428 1,578 1,717 723

2,983 3,946 2,067 1,699 5,519 2,534 6,149 1,421 1,631 9,131 4,226 614

8%

Brooklyn Dutchess

13%

13,267 13,499 -2%

11% 11%

7%

6,773 5,190

6,822 -1% 5,559 -7%

Manhattan

5,731 5,927 -3% 27,827 25,733 8%

1,493 7,518 1,421

-8%

5%

Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland

4% 7% 9% 5% 0% 7%

18,426 18,713 -2%

12% 11% 18%

4,970 4,554 1,802 1,697

9% 6%

8,396 2,195

8,473 -1% 2,270 -3%

537

18,267 16,427 11% 4,936

19,769 20,955 -6%

5%

5,410 5,145

5%

1,504

4,753 5,172

4,839 -2% 5,369 -4%

11%

Staten Island

9,354 8,171 14% 2,620

5%

Suffolk

24,878 24,191 3% 16,370 16,162 1%

6,920 4,408

-2% -3%

30,050 30,584 -2% 10,021

10% 10%

Westchester

14,092 14,484 -3%

4,644

TOTALS

136,904 127,858 7% 37,482 36,498 3% 137,513 141,325 -3% 45,775 41,920 9%

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Top three are shaded.

new vehicle market share in metro area counties Top 30 Selling Brands in Area, January 2016

Brand

Bronx Brooklyn Dutchess Manhattan Nassau Orange Putnam Queens Rockland Staten Island Suffolk Westchester

Honda Toyota Nissan

18.2 15.6 12.0

12.0 13.3 13.2

13.5

8.8 9.6 6.5 6.4 3.0 4.8 4.6 2.6 7.3 4.4 1.1 1.4 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.0 1.2 0.5 4.2 1.0 3.4 1.5 0.7 2.2 0.7 0.2 2.7 1.1 0.9

10.3

9.4

10.8

15.1 13.4 13.6

8.7

10.9

9.7

13.2

9.4 7.9 6.7 8.9 9.9 2.4 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.1 2.4 3.3 2.5 0.5 1.7 0.5 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.1

8.5

12.9

9.3 6.3 8.6 7.8 8.6 2.6 3.2 3.7 0.9 1.5 0.6 2.0 3.7 1.9 4.5 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.7 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0

13.3 12.4

9.5

10.3

8.7 6.4 8.6 5.2 6.0 8.9 4.9 2.7 5.0 3.3 0.5 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.8 1.8 2.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3

10.9

9.6 7.0 8.0 7.1 1.7 4.4 2.0 1.3 3.9 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.8 3.0 1.5 3.0 0.7 2.3 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.3 0.4

14.0

9.2 9.0

Jeep

5.7 6.3 6.2 3.2 2.8 4.8 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4 2.6 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.6 2.3 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1

5.8 3.4 5.8 2.4 3.7 2.6 3.6 5.7 8.0 3.3 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.5 1.2 0.4 0.3 0.2

9.1 6.5 5.3 4.1 5.0 3.6 4.5 3.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 3.0 2.0 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1

7.8 5.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.0 4.1 2.0 2.7 1.7 1.3 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3

6.1 5.6 8.1 6.9 2.4 3.7 2.6 3.0 8.2 1.5 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.7 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1

8.8 4.4 7.7 2.7 2.7 5.6 3.0 4.4 1.6 3.7 2.6 2.5 1.4 3.0 1.4 1.5 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.7 2.6 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.2

Chevrolet

11.4

10.1

Ford

10.1

7.9 4.5 3.1 5.1 3.4 2.3 0.9 1.5 2.9 2.1 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 1.1 1.6 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1

Subaru

13.8

Mercedes Hyundai

10.0

BMW Lexus

Chrysler Infiniti

Volkswagen

GMC

Acura

Kia

Mazda

Ram Audi

Dodge

Land Rover

Cadillac Lincoln

Volvo Buick

Mitsubishi

Porsche

MINI FIAT

Data Source: IHS Automotive

The top three counties for each brand are shaded.

MODELS (NEW & USED VEHICLES)

New Vehicles Top 25 New Models - January 2016

Used Vehicles Top 25 Used Models - January 2016

Honda CRV Honda Civic Honda Accord Nissan Rogue

Honda CRV Honda Civic Honda Accord Toyota Camry Nissan Altima

1,562

621

1,160

596

1,085

569

Nissan Rogue was the top seller in January of this year.

1,069 1,076

464

new york auto outlook : NEW & USED VEHICLE MARKET March 2016 Issue PG: 8 0 Volkswagen Jetta Chevrolet Cruze Ford Escape Honda Pilot Ford Explorer Toyota Corolla JeepWrangler Ford Fusion Toyota Sienna Hyundai Sonata Ram Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Highlander Subaru Forester Nissan Sentra Nissan Altima Jeep Cherokee Chrysler Town & Country Toyota Camry Toyota RAV4 Jeep Grand Cherokee

440

942

Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Jeep Grand Cherokee

405

787

Altima, Camry, and Accord were the leaders in the metro area used vehicle market.

379

784

340

742 726

Toyota Corolla BMW 3-Series

323 322

678

Mercedes C-Class Hyundai Sonata

320

608

310

565

Nissan Sentra JeepWrangler Toyota Sienna Honda Pilot

280

531 525

272

236

508 505

231 225 223

Hyundai Elantra Volkswagen Jetta Lexus RX Mercedes GLE/M-Class Ford F Series BMW 5-Series Mercedes E-Class

479

477 475 466

218 215 213 209

459

451

204

377

Nissan Maxima Toyota Highlander

199

375

198

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Used registrations (vehicles six years old or newer) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

New retail light vehicle registrations

Data Source: IHS Automotive

Data Source: IHS Automotive

HOW DATA IS COMPILED All data represents retail vehicle registrations in the twelve-county New York metro area and excludes fleet and wholesale transactions. February 2016 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook based on recent trends in the metro area market, seasonal factors, and results in the national market. Please keep in mind that monthly registration figures can occasionally be subject to fluctuations, resulting in over- or underestimation of actual results. This usually occurs due to processing delays by governmental agencies. For this reason, the year-to-date figures will typically be more reflective of market results. For year-to-date figures, the most recent month (February) is estimated and previous months are actual.

NEW YORK AUTO OUTLOOK Prepared by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz NewYork Auto Outlook is published by the Greater NewYork Automobile Dealers Association and is provided free of charge to all members as an added benefit of Association membership. Copyright GNYADA, March 2016

Any material quoted must be attributed to Auto Outlook and GNYADA, and must also include the statement “Data Source: IHS Automotive.” New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook is produced by Auto Outlook Inc. for the Greater New York Automobile Dealers Association. Statements contained or incorporated by reference in this publication that are not historical facts, including those that GNYADA or Auto Outlook, Inc. believes, anticipates, intends or foresees, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are based on the current expectations and beliefs of GNYADA and/or Auto Outlook concerning future developments and their potential effects on the automobile industry. Consequently, Auto Outlook and GNYADA are not responsible for management decisions based on the content of New and Used Vehicle Auto Outlook. Data provided by: IHS Automotive GNYADA: 718.746.5900 • info@gnyada.com • 18-10 Whitestone Expressway, Whitestone, NY 11357 Media inquiries: Sams Crispe Communications • 212.560.9494 • questions@samscrispe.com